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Question Bank with Solutions
(Final)
MATH 394: Probability I
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Instructor
Arman Jahangiri
Term
Summer 2026
University of Washington
Department of Mathematics
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Problem 1
Let \(X\) be a continuous random variable with probability density function \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} 2x, & 0<x<1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
In particular, find \[ M_X'(0),\qquad M_X''(0),\qquad M_X^{(3)}(0),\qquad M_X^{(4)}(0). \]
Solution
Therefore, \[ \E (X^k)=\frac {2}{k+2}. \]
From part (a), \[ \E (X^k)=\frac {2}{k+2}. \]
Therefore, \[ M_X^{(k)}(0) = \frac {2}{k+2}, \qquad k=1,2,\ldots \]
In particular, \[ M_X'(0)=\frac 23, \qquad M_X''(0)=\frac 12, \qquad M_X^{(3)}(0)=\frac 25, \qquad M_X^{(4)}(0)=\frac 13. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(X) &= \E (X^2)-[\E (X)]^2\\ &= \frac 12-\left (\frac 23\right )^2\\ &= \frac 12-\frac 49\\ &= \frac 1{18}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ \sigma ^2=\frac 1{18}, \qquad \sigma =\frac {1}{3\sqrt 2}. \]
The median \(m\) satisfies \[ F_X(m)=\frac 12. \]
Hence, \[ m^2=\frac 12. \]
Since \(m\in (0,1)\), \[ m=\frac 1{\sqrt 2}. \]
Expanding, \[ (X-\mu )^3 = X^3-3\mu X^2+3\mu ^2X-\mu ^3. \]
Therefore, \[ \mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^3] = \E (X^3) -3\mu \E (X^2) +3\mu ^2\E (X) -\mu ^3. \]
Using \[ \mu =\frac 23, \qquad \E (X^2)=\frac 12, \qquad \E (X^3)=\frac 25, \] we obtain \[ \begin {aligned} \mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^3] &= \frac 25 - 3\left (\frac 23\right )\left (\frac 12\right ) + 3\left (\frac 23\right )^2\left (\frac 23\right ) - \left (\frac 23\right )^3\\ &= \frac 25-1+\frac 89-\frac 8{27}\\ &= -\frac 1{135}. \end {aligned} \]
Also, \[ \sigma ^3 = \left (\frac 1{18}\right )^{3/2} = \frac {1}{54\sqrt 2}. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \gamma _1 &= \frac {\mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^3]}{\sigma ^3}\\ &= \frac {-1/135}{1/(54\sqrt 2)}\\ &= -\frac {2\sqrt 2}{5}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \gamma _1=-\frac {2\sqrt 2}{5}. \]
Since the skewness is negative, the distribution is negatively skewed.
Expanding, \[ (X-\mu )^4 = X^4 -4\mu X^3 +6\mu ^2X^2 -4\mu ^3X +\mu ^4. \]
Therefore, \[ \mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^4] = \E (X^4) -4\mu \E (X^3) +6\mu ^2\E (X^2) -4\mu ^3\E (X) +\mu ^4. \]
Using \[ \mu =\frac 23, \qquad \E (X^2)=\frac 12, \qquad \E (X^3)=\frac 25, \qquad \E (X^4)=\frac 13, \] we obtain \[ \begin {aligned} \mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^4] &= \frac 13 - 4\left (\frac 23\right )\left (\frac 25\right ) + 6\left (\frac 23\right )^2\left (\frac 12\right )\\ &\qquad - 4\left (\frac 23\right )^3\left (\frac 23\right ) + \left (\frac 23\right )^4\\ &= \frac 13 -\frac {16}{15} +\frac 43 -\frac {64}{81} +\frac {16}{81}\\ &= \frac 1{135}. \end {aligned} \]
Also, \[ \sigma ^4 = \left (\frac 1{18}\right )^2 = \frac 1{324}. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \gamma _2 &= \frac {\mathbb {E}[(X-\mu )^4]}{\sigma ^4}\\ &= \frac {1/135}{1/324}\\ &= \frac {12}{5}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \gamma _2=\frac {12}{5}. \]
Problem 2.
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent random variables with moment generating functions \[ M_X(t)=e^{2(e^t-1)} \] and \[ M_Y(t)=\frac {3}{3-t}, \qquad t<3. \]
State the values of \(t\) for which your answer is valid.
Solution
Therefore, \[ M_{X+Y}(t) = e^{2(e^t-1)} \frac {3}{3-t}, \qquad t<3. \]
By definition, \[ \begin {aligned} M_Z(t) &= \E \left (e^{tZ}\right )\\ &= \E \left (e^{t(aX+bY)}\right )\\ &= \E \left (e^{atX}e^{btY}\right ). \end {aligned} \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ \begin {aligned} M_Z(t) &= \E \left (e^{atX}\right ) \E \left (e^{btY}\right )\\ &= M_X(at)M_Y(bt). \end {aligned} \]
Now, \[ M_X(at) = e^{2(e^{at}-1)} \] and \[ M_Y(bt) = \frac {3}{3-bt}. \]
Hence, \[ M_{aX+bY}(t) = e^{2(e^{at}-1)} \frac {3}{3-bt}. \]
The restriction comes from \(M_Y(bt)\), which requires \[ bt<3. \]
Thus, \[ M_{aX+bY}(t) = \frac {3e^{2(e^{at}-1)}}{3-bt}, \qquad bt<3. \]
Equivalently, the domain is \[ \begin {cases} t<3/b, & b>0,\\ t>3/b, & b<0,\\ t\in \mathbb {R}, & b=0. \end {cases} \]
Problem 3
Let the joint probability mass function of discrete random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ p(x,y) = \begin {cases} c(x+y), & x=1,2,3,\quad y=1,2,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Determine
Solution
Thus, \[ c[(2+3)+(3+4)+(4+5)]=1. \]
Therefore, \[ 21c=1, \] and hence \[ c=\frac 1{21}. \]
Thus, \[ p_X(x) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {2x+3}{21}, & x=1,2,3,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For \(y=1,2\), \[ \begin {aligned} p_Y(y) &= \sum _{x=1}^{3}p(x,y)\\ &= \frac 1{21}\left [(1+y)+(2+y)+(3+y)\right ]\\ &= \frac {6+3y}{21}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ p_Y(y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 37, & y=1,\\[1mm] \dfrac 47, & y=2,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
The numerator is \[ \begin {aligned} P(X\geq 2,Y=1) &= p(2,1)+p(3,1)\\ &= \frac 3{21}+\frac 4{21}\\ &= \frac 7{21}. \end {aligned} \]
Also, \[ P(Y=1)=\frac 37=\frac 9{21}. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X\geq 2\mid Y=1) = \frac {7/21}{9/21} = \frac 79. \]
Similarly, \[ E(Y) = 1\left (\frac 37\right ) + 2\left (\frac 47\right ) = \frac {11}{7}. \]
Thus, \[ E(X)=\frac {46}{21}, \qquad E(Y)=\frac {11}{7}. \]
Problem 4
Let the joint probability density function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} 8xy, & 0\leq y\leq x\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Solution
The support of the joint density is \[ 0\leq y\leq x\leq 1. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_X(x) &= \int _0^x 8xy\,dy\\ &= 8x\left [\frac {y^2}{2}\right ]_0^x\\ &= 4x^3. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} 4x^3, & 0\leq x\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For a fixed \(y\in [0,1]\), the support requires \[ y\leq x\leq 1. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _y^1 8xy\,dx\\ &= 8y\left [\frac {x^2}{2}\right ]_y^1\\ &= 4y(1-y^2). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} 4y(1-y^2), & 0\leq y\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Similarly, \[ \begin {aligned} E(Y) &= \int _0^1 y f_Y(y)\,dy\\ &= 4\int _0^1 y^2(1-y^2)\,dy\\ &= 4\left (\frac 13-\frac 15\right )\\ &= \frac 8{15}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ E(X)=\frac 45, \qquad E(Y)=\frac 8{15}. \]
Problem 5
Let the joint probability density function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 12 ye^{-x}, & x>0,\quad 0<y<2,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Find the marginal probability density functions of \(X\) and \(Y\).
Solution
For \(x>0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_X(x) &= \int _0^2 \frac 12 ye^{-x}\,dy\\ &= \frac 12e^{-x} \left [\frac {y^2}{2}\right ]_0^2\\ &= e^{-x}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} e^{-x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For \(0<y<2\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^\infty \frac 12 ye^{-x}\,dx\\ &= \frac y2\int _0^\infty e^{-x}\,dx\\ &= \frac y2. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac y2, & 0<y<2,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 6
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) have the joint probability density function \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} 1, & 0\leq x\leq 1,\quad 0\leq y\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Calculate \[ P\left (X+Y\leq \frac 12\right ), \qquad P\left (X-Y\leq \frac 12\right ), \] \[ P\left (XY\leq \frac 14\right ), \qquad P(X^2+Y^2\leq 1). \]
Solution
Since the density is equal to \(1\) on the unit square, each desired probability is equal to the area of the corresponding region inside \([0,1]^2\).
First, \[ X+Y\leq \frac 12 \] describes a right triangle with legs of length \(1/2\). Hence, \[ P\left (X+Y\leq \frac 12\right ) = \frac 12\left (\frac 12\right )\left (\frac 12\right ) = \frac 18. \]
Next, \[ X-Y\leq \frac 12. \]
It is easier to subtract the region \[ X-Y>\frac 12. \]
This is a right triangle in the lower-right portion of the unit square with legs of length \(1/2\). Therefore, \[ P\left (X-Y>\frac 12\right )=\frac 18, \] and hence \[ P\left (X-Y\leq \frac 12\right ) = 1-\frac 18 = \frac 78. \]
For the third probability, \[ XY\leq \frac 14. \]
If \(0\leq x\leq 1/4\), every \(0\leq y\leq 1\) satisfies the inequality.
If \(1/4<x\leq 1\), then \[ y\leq \frac {1}{4x}. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} P\left (XY\leq \frac 14\right ) &= \int _0^{1/4}\int _0^1dy\,dx + \int _{1/4}^{1}\int _0^{1/(4x)}dy\,dx\\ &= \frac 14 + \frac 14\int _{1/4}^{1}\frac 1x\,dx\\ &= \frac 14+\frac 14\ln 4. \end {aligned} \]
Finally, \[ X^2+Y^2\leq 1 \] describes the quarter of the unit disk lying in the first quadrant. Therefore, \[ P(X^2+Y^2\leq 1) = \frac {\pi }{4}. \]
Hence, \[ P\left (X+Y\leq \frac 12\right )=\frac 18, \] \[ P\left (X-Y\leq \frac 12\right )=\frac 78, \] \[ P\left (XY\leq \frac 14\right ) = \frac 14+\frac 14\ln 4, \] and \[ P(X^2+Y^2\leq 1)=\frac {\pi }{4}. \]
Problem 7
Suppose that \(h\) is the probability density function of a continuous random variable. Let the joint probability density function of \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ f(x,y)=h(x)h(y), \qquad x,y\in \mathbb R. \]
Prove that \[ P(X\geq Y)=\frac 12. \]
Solution
Since \[ f(x,y)=h(x)h(y), \] \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent and identically distributed continuous random variables.
Because \(X\) and \(Y\) have the same distribution, symmetry gives \[ P(X>Y)=P(Y>X). \]
Moreover, since \(X\) and \(Y\) are continuous, \[ P(X=Y)=0. \]
The events \[ \{X>Y\}, \qquad \{Y>X\}, \qquad \{X=Y\} \] partition the sample space. Therefore, \[ P(X>Y)+P(Y>X)+P(X=Y)=1. \]
Hence, \[ 2P(X>Y)=1, \] so \[ P(X>Y)=\frac 12. \]
Finally, \[ P(X\geq Y) = P(X>Y)+P(X=Y) = \frac 12. \]
Problem 8
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be continuous random variables with joint probability density function \(f(x,y)\). Define \[ Z=\frac {Y}{X}, \qquad X\neq 0. \]
Prove that the probability density function of \(Z\) is \[ f_Z(z) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } |x|f(x,xz)\,dx. \]
Solution
Introduce the transformation \[ Z=\frac {Y}{X}, \qquad W=X. \]
Then \[ z=\frac {y}{x}, \qquad w=x. \]
Solving for \(x\) and \(y\) in terms of \(z\) and \(w\), \[ x=w, \qquad y=wz. \]
The Jacobian matrix of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (z,w)} = \begin {pmatrix} 0 & 1\\ w & z \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (z,w)} = -w, \] and hence \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (z,w)} \right | = |w|. \]
By the change-of-variables formula, \[ f_{Z,W}(z,w) = f(w,wz)|w|. \]
To obtain the marginal density of \(Z\), integrate out \(W\): \[ \begin {aligned} f_Z(z) &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_{Z,W}(z,w)\,dw\\ &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } |w|f(w,wz)\,dw. \end {aligned} \]
Renaming the variable of integration from \(w\) to \(x\), \[ f_Z(z) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } |x|f(x,xz)\,dx. \]
Problem 9
Prove that random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) with joint probability density function \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} 8xy, & 0\leq x\leq y\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}, \end {cases} \] are not independent.
Solution
We first calculate the marginal densities.
For \(0\leq x\leq 1\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_X(x) &= \int _x^1 8xy\,dy\\ &= 8x\left [\frac {y^2}{2}\right ]_x^1\\ &= 4x(1-x^2). \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} 4x(1-x^2), & 0\leq x\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For \(0\leq y\leq 1\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^y8xy\,dx\\ &= 8y\left [\frac {x^2}{2}\right ]_0^y\\ &= 4y^3. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} 4y^3, & 0\leq y\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
If \(X\) and \(Y\) were independent, we would have \[ f(x,y)=f_X(x)f_Y(y) \] for all \(x,y\).
However, \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y) = 16xy^3(1-x^2), \] which is not equal to \[ f(x,y)=8xy \] on the support.
Therefore, \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.
There is also a geometric reason for the dependence. The support \[ 0\leq x\leq y\leq 1 \] is triangular rather than a Cartesian product of one-dimensional supports. In particular, knowing the value of \(Y\) restricts the possible values of \(X\).
Problem 10
Let the joint probability mass function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ p(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 17x^2y, & (x,y)=(1,1),(1,2),(2,1),\\[2mm] 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Are \(X\) and \(Y\) independent? Why or why not?
Solution
The nonzero joint probabilities are \[ p(1,1)=\frac 17, \qquad p(1,2)=\frac 27, \qquad p(2,1)=\frac 47. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X=1) = \frac 17+\frac 27 = \frac 37, \] and \[ P(X=2)=\frac 47. \]
Similarly, \[ P(Y=1) = \frac 17+\frac 47 = \frac 57, \] and \[ P(Y=2)=\frac 27. \]
If \(X\) and \(Y\) were independent, then \[ P(X=2,Y=2) = P(X=2)P(Y=2). \]
However, \[ P(X=2,Y=2)=0, \] whereas \[ P(X=2)P(Y=2) = \frac 47\frac 27 = \frac 8{49}>0. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X=2,Y=2) \neq P(X=2)P(Y=2), \] so \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.
Problem 11
Let the joint probability density function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} x^2e^{-x(y+1)}, & x\geq 0,\quad y\geq 0,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Are \(X\) and \(Y\) independent? Why or why not?
Solution
We calculate the marginal densities.
For \(x>0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_X(x) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(y+1)}\,dy\\ &= x^2e^{-x} \int _0^\infty e^{-xy}\,dy\\ &= x^2e^{-x}\left (\frac 1x\right )\\ &= xe^{-x}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} xe^{-x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For \(y\geq 0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-(y+1)x}\,dx. \end {aligned} \]
Using \[ \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-ax}\,dx = \frac {2}{a^3}, \qquad a>0, \] we obtain \[ f_Y(y) = \frac {2}{(y+1)^3}, \qquad y\geq 0. \]
Therefore, \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y) = \frac {2xe^{-x}}{(y+1)^3}. \]
But the joint density is \[ f(x,y) = x^2e^{-x(y+1)}. \]
These are not equal in general. Hence, \[ f(x,y)\neq f_X(x)f_Y(y), \] and therefore \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.
Problem 12
Suppose that \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, identically distributed exponential random variables with mean \(1/\lambda \). Prove that \[ \frac {X}{X+Y} \] is uniformly distributed on \((0,1)\).
Solution
Since \[ X,Y\overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim }\operatorname {Exp}(\lambda ), \] their joint density is \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \lambda ^2e^{-\lambda (x+y)}, \qquad x>0,\ y>0. \]
Define \[ U=\frac {X}{X+Y}, \qquad V=X+Y. \]
Then \[ X=UV \] and \[ Y=(1-U)V. \]
Since \(X>0\) and \(Y>0\), the support of \((U,V)\) is \[ 0<u<1, \qquad v>0. \]
The Jacobian matrix is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} v & u\\ -v & 1-u \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = v(1-u)+uv = v. \]
Hence, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = v. \]
The joint density of \(U\) and \(V\) is therefore \[ \begin {aligned} f_{U,V}(u,v) &= f_{X,Y}(uv,(1-u)v)v\\ &= \lambda ^2e^{-\lambda v}v, \end {aligned} \] for \[ 0<u<1,\qquad v>0. \]
Now integrate out \(V\): \[ \begin {aligned} f_U(u) &= \int _0^\infty \lambda ^2ve^{-\lambda v}\,dv\\ &= 1, \qquad 0<u<1. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ f_U(u) = \begin {cases} 1, & 0<u<1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Therefore, \[ \frac {X}{X+Y} \sim \operatorname {Unif}(0,1). \]
Problem 13
Let the joint probability mass function of discrete random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ p(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 1{25}(x^2+y^2), & x=1,2,\quad y=0,1,2,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Find
Solution
First find the marginal PMF of \(Y\). For \(y=0,1,2\), \[ \begin {aligned} p_Y(y) &= \sum _{x=1}^{2}p(x,y)\\ &= \frac 1{25} \left [ (1+y^2)+(4+y^2) \right ]\\ &= \frac {5+2y^2}{25}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ p_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \frac {x^2+y^2}{5+2y^2}, \qquad x=1,2,\quad y=0,1,2. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X\mid Y=1) &= 1\left (\frac 27\right ) + 2\left (\frac 57\right )\\ &= \frac {12}{7}. \end {aligned} \]
Problem 14
Let the conditional probability density function of \(X\) given \(Y=y\) be \[ f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \frac {3(x^2+y^2)}{3y^2+1}, \qquad 0<x<1,\quad 0<y<1. \]
Find \[ P\left ( \frac 14<X<\frac 12 \,\middle |\, Y=\frac 34 \right ). \]
Solution
Substituting \[ y=\frac 34 \] into the conditional density gives \[ f_{X\mid Y}\left (x\mid \frac 34\right ) = \frac { 3\left (x^2+\frac 9{16}\right ) }{ 3\left (\frac 9{16}\right )+1 }. \]
Since \[ 3\left (\frac 9{16}\right )+1 = \frac {43}{16}, \] we obtain \[ f_{X\mid Y}\left (x\mid \frac 34\right ) = \frac {48}{43} \left (x^2+\frac 9{16}\right ). \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P\left ( \frac 14<X<\frac 12 \,\middle |\, Y=\frac 34 \right ) &= \int _{1/4}^{1/2} f_{X\mid Y}\left (x\mid \frac 34\right )\,dx\\ &= \frac {48}{43} \int _{1/4}^{1/2} \left (x^2+\frac 9{16}\right )\,dx\\ &= \frac {48}{43} \left [ \frac {x^3}{3} + \frac 9{16}x \right ]_{1/4}^{1/2}\\ &= \frac {17}{86}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ P\left ( \frac 14<X<\frac 12 \,\middle |\, Y=\frac 34 \right ) = \frac {17}{86}. \]
Problem 15
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be continuous random variables with joint probability density function \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} x+y, & 0\leq x\leq 1,\quad 0\leq y\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Calculate \(f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)\).
Solution
First calculate the marginal density of \(Y\): \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^1(x+y)\,dx\\ &= \left [\frac {x^2}{2}+xy\right ]_0^1\\ &= \frac 12+y, \end {aligned} \] for \[ 0\leq y\leq 1. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) &= \frac {f(x,y)}{f_Y(y)}\\ &= \frac {x+y}{y+\frac 12}, \end {aligned} \] for \[ 0\leq x\leq 1, \qquad 0\leq y\leq 1. \]
Thus, \[ f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {x+y}{y+\frac 12}, & 0\leq x\leq 1,\quad 0\leq y\leq 1,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 16
The joint probability density function of \(X\) and \(Y\) is given by \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} ce^{-x}, & x\geq 0,\quad |y|<x,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Solution
The support is \[ x\geq 0, \qquad -x<y<x. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} 1 &= c\int _0^\infty 2xe^{-x}\,dx\\ &= 2c. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ c=\frac 12. \]
Thus, \[ f(x,y) = \frac 12e^{-x} \] on the support.
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{Y\mid X}(y\mid x) &= \frac {f(x,y)}{f_X(x)}\\ &= \frac {\frac 12e^{-x}}{xe^{-x}}\\ &= \frac 1{2x}, \end {aligned} \] for \[ -x<y<x. \]
Thus, \[ f_{Y\mid X}(y\mid x) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 1{2x}, & -x<y<x,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Hence, conditional on \(X=x\), \[ Y\mid X=x \sim \operatorname {Unif}(-x,x). \]
Next, for a fixed \(y\), the condition \[ |y|<x \] implies \[ x>|y|. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _{|y|}^{\infty } \frac 12e^{-x}\,dx\\ &= \frac 12e^{-|y|}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) &= \frac {f(x,y)}{f_Y(y)}\\ &= \frac {\frac 12e^{-x}} {\frac 12e^{-|y|}}\\ &= e^{-(x-|y|)}, \end {aligned} \] for \[ x>|y|. \]
Thus, \[ f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \begin {cases} e^{-(x-|y|)}, & x>|y|,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
The variance of a uniform random variable on \((a,b)\) is \[ \frac {(b-a)^2}{12}. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(Y\mid X=x) &= \frac {(x-(-x))^2}{12}\\ &= \frac {4x^2}{12}\\ &= \frac {x^2}{3}. \end {aligned} \]
Problem 17
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent random variables, each uniformly distributed on \((0,1)\). Find the joint probability density function of \[ U=-2\ln X \qquad \text {and}\qquad V=-2\ln Y. \]
Solution
Since \[ X,Y\overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim }\operatorname {Unif}(0,1), \] their joint density is \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y)=1, \qquad 0<x<1,\quad 0<y<1. \]
The transformation is \[ u=-2\ln x, \qquad v=-2\ln y. \]
Solving for \(x\) and \(y\), \[ x=e^{-u/2}, \qquad y=e^{-v/2}. \]
Since \(0<x,y<1\), we have \[ u>0, \qquad v>0. \]
The Jacobian matrix of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} -\dfrac 12e^{-u/2} & 0\\[2mm] 0 & -\dfrac 12e^{-v/2} \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac 14e^{-(u+v)/2}. \]
Hence, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = f_{X,Y} \left ( e^{-u/2},e^{-v/2} \right ) \frac 14e^{-(u+v)/2}. \]
Since the original joint density equals \(1\) on its support, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 14e^{-(u+v)/2}, & u>0,\quad v>0,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 18
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be two positive independent continuous random variables with probability density functions \(f_1(x)\) and \(f_2(y)\), respectively. Find the probability density function of \[ U=\frac {X}{Y}. \]
Hint: Let \(V=X\); find the joint probability density function of \(U\) and \(V\), and then calculate the marginal probability density function of \(U\).
Solution
Define \[ U=\frac {X}{Y}, \qquad V=X. \]
Then \[ u=\frac {x}{y}, \qquad v=x. \]
Solving for \(x\) and \(y\), \[ x=v, \qquad y=\frac vu. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are positive, \[ u>0, \qquad v>0. \]
The Jacobian matrix is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} 0 & 1\\[2mm] -\dfrac {v}{u^2} & \dfrac 1u \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac {v}{u^2}. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = f_1(x)f_2(y). \]
Thus, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right ) \frac {v}{u^2}, \qquad u>0,\quad v>0. \]
Integrating out \(V\), \[ f_U(u) = \int _0^\infty f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right ) \frac {v}{u^2}\,dv, \qquad u>0. \]
Therefore, \[ f_U(u) = \begin {cases} \displaystyle \int _0^\infty \frac {v}{u^2} f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right )\,dv, & u>0,\\[4mm] 0, & u\leq 0. \end {cases} \]
Problem 19
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent random variables with common probability density function \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 1{x^2}, & x\geq 1,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Calculate the joint probability density function of \[ U=\frac XY \qquad \text {and}\qquad V=XY. \]
Solution
The transformation is \[ u=\frac xy, \qquad v=xy. \]
Since \(x>0\) and \(y>0\), \[ uv=x^2, \] and \[ \frac vu=y^2. \]
Therefore, \[ x=\sqrt {uv}, \qquad y=\sqrt {\frac vu}. \]
The Jacobian matrix of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)}. \]
Its absolute determinant is \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac 1{2u}. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \frac 1{x^2y^2}, \qquad x\geq 1,\quad y\geq 1. \]
But \[ x^2y^2=(xy)^2=v^2. \]
Therefore, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y)=\frac 1{v^2}. \]
It remains to determine the support.
The condition \(x\geq 1\) gives \[ \sqrt {uv}\geq 1, \] so \[ uv\geq 1 \] and therefore \[ v\geq \frac 1u. \]
The condition \(y\geq 1\) gives \[ \sqrt {\frac vu}\geq 1, \] so \[ v\geq u. \]
Thus, \[ u>0, \qquad v\geq \max \left \{u,\frac 1u\right \}. \]
Hence, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {1}{2uv^2}, & u>0,\quad v\geq \max \left \{u,\dfrac 1u\right \},\\[3mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 20
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent random variables with common probability density function \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} e^{-x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Find the joint probability density function of \[ U=X+Y \qquad \text {and}\qquad V=e^X. \]
Solution
The transformation is \[ u=x+y, \qquad v=e^x. \]
From \(v=e^x,\) we obtain \(x=\ln v.\) Therefore, \(y=u-\ln v.\) Since \(x>0\), \(\ln v>0,\) so \( v>1.\) Since \(y>0\), \(u-\ln v>0,\) so \(u>\ln v.\)
The Jacobian matrix of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} 0 & \dfrac 1v\\[2mm] 1 & -\dfrac 1v \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac 1v. \]
Because \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = e^{-x}e^{-y} = e^{-(x+y)}. \]
Since \[ x+y=u, \] we have \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y)=e^{-u}. \]
Hence, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {e^{-u}}{v}, & v>1,\quad u>\ln v,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 21
Suppose that \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent standard Normal random variables. Prove that \[ X+Y \qquad \text {and}\qquad X-Y \] are independent random variables.
Solution
Define \[ U=X+Y, \qquad V=X-Y. \]
Solving for \(X\) and \(Y\), \[ X=\frac {U+V}{2}, \qquad Y=\frac {U-V}{2}. \]
The Jacobian matrix of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} \dfrac 12 & \dfrac 12\\[2mm] \dfrac 12 & -\dfrac 12 \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac 12. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent standard Normal random variables, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \frac 1{2\pi } \exp \left ( -\frac {x^2+y^2}{2} \right ). \]
Now \[ \begin {aligned} x^2+y^2 &= \left (\frac {u+v}{2}\right )^2 + \left (\frac {u-v}{2}\right )^2\\ &= \frac {u^2+v^2}{2}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{U,V}(u,v) &= \frac 1{2\pi } \exp \left ( -\frac {u^2+v^2}{4} \right ) \frac 12\\ &= \frac 1{4\pi } e^{-u^2/4} e^{-v^2/4}. \end {aligned} \]
But \[ \frac 1{\sqrt {4\pi }}e^{-u^2/4} \] is the density of a \(N(0,2)\) random variable. Hence, \[ f_U(u) = \frac 1{\sqrt {4\pi }}e^{-u^2/4} \] and \[ f_V(v) = \frac 1{\sqrt {4\pi }}e^{-v^2/4}. \]
Consequently, \(f_{U,V}(u,v) = f_U(u)f_V(v)\) and thus the independence.
Problem 22
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent strictly positive exponential random variables, each with parameter \(\lambda \). Are the random variables \[ X+Y \qquad \text {and}\qquad \frac XY \] independent?
Solution
Define \[ U=X+Y, \qquad V=\frac XY. \]
Since \[ v=\frac xy, \] we have \[ x=vy. \]
Substituting into \[ u=x+y \] gives \[ u=(v+1)y. \]
Therefore, \[ y=\frac {u}{1+v} \] and \[ x=\frac {uv}{1+v}. \]
Since \(X,Y>0\), \[ u>0, \qquad v>0. \]
The Jacobian matrix is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {pmatrix} \dfrac {v}{1+v} & \dfrac {u}{(1+v)^2} \\[3mm] \dfrac 1{1+v} & -\dfrac {u}{(1+v)^2} \end {pmatrix}. \]
Therefore, \[ \left | \det \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac {u}{(1+v)^2}. \]
Because \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent exponential random variables, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \lambda ^2e^{-\lambda (x+y)}, \qquad x,y>0. \]
Since \[ x+y=u, \] the transformed joint density is \[ \begin {aligned} f_{U,V}(u,v) &= \lambda ^2e^{-\lambda u} \frac {u}{(1+v)^2}\\ &= \left ( \lambda ^2u e^{-\lambda u} \right ) \left ( \frac 1{(1+v)^2} \right ), \end {aligned} \] for \[ u>0, \qquad v>0. \]
The first factor is a density on \(u>0\), since \[ \int _0^\infty \lambda ^2u e^{-\lambda u}\,du = 1. \]
The second factor is also a density on \(v>0\), since \[ \int _0^\infty \frac 1{(1+v)^2}\,dv = 1. \]
Thus, \[ f_U(u) = \lambda ^2u e^{-\lambda u}, \qquad u>0, \] and \[ f_V(v) = \frac 1{(1+v)^2}, \qquad v>0. \]
Therefore, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = f_U(u)f_V(v). \]
Hence, \[ X+Y \qquad \text {and}\qquad \frac XY \] are independent.
Problem 23
Let \[ p(x,y,z)=\frac {xyz}{162}, \qquad x=4,5,\quad y=1,2,3,\quad z=1,2, \] be the joint probability mass function of random variables \(X,Y,Z\).
Solution
Thus, \[ p_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {xy}{54}, & x=4,5,\quad y=1,2,3,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Similarly, \[ \begin {aligned} p_{Y,Z}(y,z) &= \sum _{x=4}^{5}p(x,y,z)\\ &= \frac {yz}{162}(4+5)\\ &= \frac {yz}{18}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ p_{Y,Z}(y,z) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {yz}{18}, & y=1,2,3,\quad z=1,2,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Finally, \[ \begin {aligned} p_{X,Z}(x,z) &= \sum _{y=1}^{3}p(x,y,z)\\ &= \frac {xz}{162}(1+2+3)\\ &= \frac {xz}{27}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ p_{X,Z}(x,z) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {xz}{27}, & x=4,5,\quad z=1,2,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} E(YZ) &= \sum _{y=1}^{3}\sum _{z=1}^{2} yz\frac {yz}{18}\\ &= \frac 1{18} \left (\sum _{y=1}^{3}y^2\right ) \left (\sum _{z=1}^{2}z^2\right )\\ &= \frac 1{18}(1+4+9)(1+4)\\ &= \frac {70}{18}\\ &= \frac {35}{9}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ E(YZ)=\frac {35}{9}. \]
Problem 24
Let the joint probability density function of \(X,Y,Z\) be \[ f(x,y,z) = \begin {cases} 6e^{-x-y-z}, & 0<x<y<z<\infty ,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Solution
The support is \[ 0<x<y<z<\infty . \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X,Y}(x,y) &= \int _y^\infty 6e^{-x-y-z}\,dz\\ &= 6e^{-x-y} \int _y^\infty e^{-z}\,dz\\ &= 6e^{-x-2y}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin {cases} 6e^{-x-2y}, & 0<x<y,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For fixed \(x\) and \(z\) satisfying \(0<x<z\), \[ x<y<z. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X,Z}(x,z) &= \int _x^z 6e^{-x-y-z}\,dy\\ &= 6e^{-x-z} \left (e^{-x}-e^{-z}\right )\\ &= 6\left ( e^{-2x-z}-e^{-x-2z} \right ). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ f_{X,Z}(x,z) = \begin {cases} 6\left (e^{-2x-z}-e^{-x-2z}\right ), & 0<x<z,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For fixed \(y\) and \(z\) satisfying \(0<y<z\), \[ 0<x<y. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{Y,Z}(y,z) &= \int _0^y 6e^{-x-y-z}\,dx\\ &= 6e^{-y-z}(1-e^{-y}). \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ f_{Y,Z}(y,z) = \begin {cases} 6e^{-y-z}(1-e^{-y}), & 0<y<z,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X) &= \int _0^\infty x\,3e^{-3x}\,dx\\ &= \frac 13. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ E(X)=\frac 13. \]
Problem 25
Let \(X,Y,Z\) be jointly continuous with joint probability density function \[ f(x,y,z) = \begin {cases} x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}, & x,y,z>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Are \(X,Y,Z\) mutually independent? Are they pairwise independent?
Solution
We first calculate the marginal densities.
For \(x>0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_X(x) &= \int _0^\infty \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)} \,dy\,dz\\ &= x^2e^{-x} \left ( \int _0^\infty e^{-xy}\,dy \right ) \left ( \int _0^\infty e^{-xz}\,dz \right )\\ &= x^2e^{-x} \left (\frac 1x\right ) \left (\frac 1x\right )\\ &= e^{-x}. \end {aligned} \]
For \(y>0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^\infty \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)} \,dz\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty xe^{-x(1+y)}\,dx\\ &= \frac {1}{(1+y)^2}. \end {aligned} \]
By symmetry, \[ f_Z(z)=\frac {1}{(1+z)^2}, \qquad z>0. \]
If \(X,Y,Z\) were mutually independent, then \[ f(x,y,z) = f_X(x)f_Y(y)f_Z(z). \]
However, \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y)f_Z(z) = \frac {e^{-x}} {(1+y)^2(1+z)^2}, \] which is not equal to \[ x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}. \]
Therefore, the three random variables are not mutually independent.
We now examine pairwise independence.
For \(x,y>0\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X,Y}(x,y) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}\,dz\\ &= xe^{-x(1+y)}. \end {aligned} \]
But \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y) = \frac {e^{-x}}{(1+y)^2}, \] which is not equal to \(f_{X,Y}(x,y)\). Hence \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.
Similarly, \(X\) and \(Z\) are not independent.
Finally, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{Y,Z}(y,z) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}\,dx\\ &= \frac {2}{(1+y+z)^3}, \end {aligned} \] whereas \[ f_Y(y)f_Z(z) = \frac {1}{(1+y)^2(1+z)^2}. \]
Thus \(Y\) and \(Z\) are not independent either.
Therefore, \(X,Y,Z\) are neither mutually independent nor pairwise independent.
Problem 26
Let the joint cumulative distribution function of \(X,Y,Z\) be \[ F(x,y,z) = \left (1-e^{-\lambda _1x}\right ) \left (1-e^{-\lambda _2y}\right ) \left (1-e^{-\lambda _3z}\right ), \qquad x,y,z>0, \] where \[ \lambda _1,\lambda _2,\lambda _3>0. \]
Solution
Therefore, \[ X\sim \operatorname {Exp}(\lambda _1), \qquad Y\sim \operatorname {Exp}(\lambda _2), \qquad Z\sim \operatorname {Exp}(\lambda _3), \] and \(X,Y,Z\) are mutually independent.
Therefore, \[ f(x,y,z) = \lambda _1\lambda _2\lambda _3 e^{-\lambda _1x-\lambda _2y-\lambda _3z}, \qquad x,y,z>0. \]
Thus, \[ f(x,y,z) = \begin {cases} \lambda _1\lambda _2\lambda _3 e^{-\lambda _1x-\lambda _2y-\lambda _3z}, & x,y,z>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} P(X<Y<Z) &= \int _0^\infty \int _x^\infty \int _y^\infty \lambda _1\lambda _2\lambda _3 e^{-\lambda _1x-\lambda _2y-\lambda _3z} \,dz\,dy\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty \int _x^\infty \lambda _1\lambda _2 e^{-\lambda _1x-(\lambda _2+\lambda _3)y} \,dy\,dx\\ &= \frac {\lambda _1\lambda _2} {\lambda _2+\lambda _3} \int _0^\infty e^{-(\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)x} \,dx\\ &= \frac {\lambda _1\lambda _2} {(\lambda _2+\lambda _3) (\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ P(X<Y<Z) = \frac {\lambda _1\lambda _2} {(\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)(\lambda _2+\lambda _3)}. \]
Problem 27
Suppose that \(h\) is the probability density function of a continuous random variable. Let the joint probability density function of \(X,Y,Z\) be \[ f(x,y,z)=h(x)h(y)h(z), \qquad x,y,z\in \mathbb R. \]
Prove that \[ P(X<Y<Z)=\frac 16. \]
Solution
Since \[ f(x,y,z)=h(x)h(y)h(z), \] the random variables \(X,Y,Z\) are independent and identically distributed.
Because their common distribution is continuous, ties occur with probability zero: \[ P(X=Y)=P(X=Z)=P(Y=Z)=0. \]
Therefore, with probability \(1\), the three values occur in exactly one of the six possible strict orderings: \[ X<Y<Z, \] \[ X<Z<Y, \] \[ Y<X<Z, \] \[ Y<Z<X, \] \[ Z<X<Y, \] or \[ Z<Y<X. \]
Since \(X,Y,Z\) are identically distributed, symmetry implies that all six orderings have the same probability.
Their probabilities sum to \(1\), so each must have probability \[ \frac 16. \]
Hence, \[ P(X<Y<Z)=\frac 16. \]
Problem 28
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be random variables with finite second moments, and let \(a,b\) be constants. Prove that \[ \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) = a^2\operatorname {Var}(X) + b^2\operatorname {Var}(Y) + 2ab\operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \]
Deduce that if \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, then \[ \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) = a^2\operatorname {Var}(X) + b^2\operatorname {Var}(Y). \]
Solution
By definition, \[ \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) = E\left [ (aX+bY)-E(aX+bY) \right ]^2. \]
By linearity of expectation, \[ E(aX+bY)=aE(X)+bE(Y). \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) &= E\left [ a(X-E(X)) + b(Y-E(Y)) \right ]^2\\ &= E\Big [ a^2(X-E(X))^2 + b^2(Y-E(Y))^2\\ &\hspace {2.7cm} + 2ab(X-E(X))(Y-E(Y)) \Big ]. \end {aligned} \]
Using linearity of expectation, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) &= a^2E[(X-E(X))^2] + b^2E[(Y-E(Y))^2]\\ &\qquad + 2abE[(X-E(X))(Y-E(Y))]. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) = a^2\operatorname {Var}(X) + b^2\operatorname {Var}(Y) + 2ab\operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \]
If \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, then \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y)=0. \]
Hence, \[ \operatorname {Var}(aX+bY) = a^2\operatorname {Var}(X) + b^2\operatorname {Var}(Y). \]
Problem 29
Let \(X_1,\ldots ,X_n\) be random variables with finite second moments, and let \(a_1,\ldots ,a_n\) be constants. Prove that \[ \operatorname {Var} \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i \right ) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i^2\operatorname {Var}(X_i) + 2\sum _{i<j} a_ia_j\operatorname {Cov}(X_i,X_j). \]
In particular, show that \[ \operatorname {Var} \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i \right ) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \operatorname {Var}(X_i) + 2\sum _{i<j} \operatorname {Cov}(X_i,X_j). \]
Solution
Let \[ S=\sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i. \]
Then \[ E(S) = \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iE(X_i). \]
Therefore, \[ S-E(S) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i\bigl (X_i-E(X_i)\bigr ). \]
Hence, \[ \operatorname {Var}(S) = E\left [ \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i(X_i-E(X_i)) \right )^2 \right ]. \]
Expanding the square, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(S) &= E\left [ \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i^2(X_i-E(X_i))^2 \right .\\ &\qquad \left . + 2\sum _{i<j} a_ia_j (X_i-E(X_i))(X_j-E(X_j)) \right ]. \end {aligned} \]
By linearity of expectation, \[ \operatorname {Var}(S) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i^2\operatorname {Var}(X_i) + 2\sum _{i<j} a_ia_j\operatorname {Cov}(X_i,X_j). \]
Taking \[ a_i=1, \qquad i=1,\ldots ,n, \] gives \[ \operatorname {Var} \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i \right ) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \operatorname {Var}(X_i) + 2\sum _{i<j} \operatorname {Cov}(X_i,X_j). \]
Problem 30
Let \(X_1,\ldots ,X_n\) be a random sample from a distribution with mean \(\mu \) and variance \(\sigma ^2\). Define \[ \overline X = \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i. \]
Prove that \[ E(\overline X)=\mu \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(\overline X) = \frac {\sigma ^2}{n}. \]
Solution
Since \(X_1,\ldots ,X_n\) form a random sample, \[ E(X_i)=\mu \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=\sigma ^2 \] for every \(i\), and the random variables are independent.
By linearity of expectation, \[ \begin {aligned} E(\overline X) &= E\left ( \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i \right )\\ &= \frac 1n \sum _{i=1}^{n}E(X_i)\\ &= \frac 1n(n\mu )\\ &= \mu . \end {aligned} \]
For the variance, independence implies \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X_i,X_j)=0 \qquad (i\neq j). \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(\overline X) &= \operatorname {Var} \left ( \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i \right )\\ &= \frac 1{n^2} \sum _{i=1}^{n} \operatorname {Var}(X_i)\\ &= \frac 1{n^2}(n\sigma ^2)\\ &= \frac {\sigma ^2}{n}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ E(\overline X)=\mu , \qquad \operatorname {Var}(\overline X)=\frac {\sigma ^2}{n}. \]
Problem 31
Let \(X\) be uniformly distributed on \((-1,1)\), and define \[ Y=X^2. \]
Show that \(X\) and \(Y\) are dependent but uncorrelated.
Solution
Since \[ Y=X^2, \] the value of \(Y\) is completely determined by \(X\). Therefore, \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.
We now calculate their covariance.
By symmetry of the uniform distribution on \((-1,1)\), \[ E(X)=0. \]
Also, \[ E(X^3)=0, \] because \(x^3\) is an odd function and the distribution of \(X\) is symmetric about zero.
Since \[ Y=X^2, \] we have \[ XY=X^3. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y) &= E(XY)-E(X)E(Y)\\ &= E(X^3)-E(X)E(X^2)\\ &= 0-0\cdot E(X^2)\\ &= 0. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \(X\) and \(Y\) are dependent but uncorrelated.
Problem 32
Let the joint probability mass function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be \[ p(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 1{70}x(x+y), & x=1,2,3,\quad y=3,4,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]
Find \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \]
Solution
Recall that \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y) = E(XY)-E(X)E(Y). \]
First calculate \(E(X)\): \[ \begin {aligned} E(X) &= \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} x\,p(x,y)\\ &= \frac 1{70} \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} x^2(x+y). \end {aligned} \]
Evaluating the six terms, \[ E(X) = \frac {156}{70} = \frac {78}{35}. \]
Next, \[ \begin {aligned} E(Y) &= \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} y\,p(x,y)\\ &= \frac 1{70} \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} xy(x+y)\\ &= \frac {249}{70}. \end {aligned} \]
Finally, \[ \begin {aligned} E(XY) &= \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} xy\,p(x,y)\\ &= \frac 1{70} \sum _{x=1}^{3} \sum _{y=3}^{4} x^2y(x+y)\\ &= \frac {558}{70}\\ &= \frac {279}{35}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y) &= \frac {279}{35} - \left (\frac {78}{35}\right ) \left (\frac {249}{70}\right )\\ &= \frac {279}{35} - \frac {9711}{1225}\\ &= \frac {54}{1225}. \end {aligned} \]
Problem 33
Let \(X,Y,Z\) be random variables with finite second moments.
Solution
Recall that \[ \operatorname {Cov}(A,B) = E(AB)-E(A)E(B). \]
Since \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,X)=\operatorname {Var}(X), \] \[ \operatorname {Cov}(Y,Y)=\operatorname {Var}(Y), \] and \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y)=\operatorname {Cov}(Y,X), \] the middle terms cancel. Therefore, \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X+Y,X-Y) = \operatorname {Var}(X)-\operatorname {Var}(Y). \]
Problem 34
Let \(X_1,\ldots ,X_n\) and \(Y_1,\ldots ,Y_m\) be random variables with finite second moments, and let \(a_1,\ldots ,a_n\) and \(b_1,\ldots ,b_m\) be constants.
Prove that \[ \operatorname {Cov} \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i, \sum _{j=1}^{m}b_jY_j \right ) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \sum _{j=1}^{m} a_ib_j\operatorname {Cov}(X_i,Y_j). \]
Deduce, as a special case, that for constants \(a,b,c,d\), \[ \operatorname {Cov}(aX+b,cY+d) = ac\,\operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \]
Solution
Using bilinearity of covariance repeatedly, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Cov} \left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i, \sum _{j=1}^{m}b_jY_j \right ) &= \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i \operatorname {Cov} \left ( X_i, \sum _{j=1}^{m}b_jY_j \right )\\ &= \sum _{i=1}^{n} a_i \sum _{j=1}^{m} b_j\operatorname {Cov}(X_i,Y_j)\\ &= \sum _{i=1}^{n} \sum _{j=1}^{m} a_ib_j\operatorname {Cov}(X_i,Y_j). \end {aligned} \]
For the special case, \[ \operatorname {Cov}(aX+b,cY+d), \] constants have zero covariance with every random variable. Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Cov}(aX+b,cY+d) &= ac\,\operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \end {aligned} \]
Problem 35
Let \(A\) and \(B\) be events with \[ P(A)>0, \qquad P(B)>0. \]
Let \(I_A\) and \(I_B\) denote their indicator random variables: \[ I_A= \begin {cases} 1, & \text {if }A\text { occurs},\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}, \end {cases} \] and \[ I_B= \begin {cases} 1, & \text {if }B\text { occurs},\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Show that \(I_A\) and \(I_B\) are positively correlated if and only if \[ P(A\mid B)>P(A), \] and equivalently if and only if \[ P(B\mid A)>P(B). \]
Solution
We have \[ E(I_A)=P(A), \qquad E(I_B)=P(B). \]
Also, \[ I_AI_B=I_{A\cap B}, \] so \[ E(I_AI_B)=P(A\cap B). \]
Therefore, \[ \operatorname {Cov}(I_A,I_B) = P(A\cap B)-P(A)P(B). \]
The indicators are positively correlated if and only if \[ \operatorname {Cov}(I_A,I_B)>0. \]
Thus, \[ P(A\cap B)>P(A)P(B). \]
Since \(P(B)>0\), dividing by \(P(B)\) gives \[ \frac {P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}>P(A), \] or \[ P(A\mid B)>P(A). \]
Similarly, since \(P(A)>0\), \[ P(A\cap B)>P(A)P(B) \] is equivalent to \[ \frac {P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}>P(B), \] which is \[ P(B\mid A)>P(B). \]
Hence, \[ \operatorname {Cov}(I_A,I_B)>0 \] if and only if \[ P(A\mid B)>P(A), \] and if and only if \[ P(B\mid A)>P(B). \]
Problem 36
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be integrable random variables.
Prove the Law of Total Expectation, also called the Tower Property: \[ E\!\left [E(X\mid Y)\right ] = E(X). \]
Give a proof for the jointly continuous case.
Solution
Suppose \(X\) and \(Y\) have joint density \(f_{X,Y}(x,y)\).
By definition, \[ E(X\mid Y=y) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } x f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)\,dx. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} E[E(X\mid Y)] &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } E(X\mid Y=y)f_Y(y)\,dy\\ &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } \left [ \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } x f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)\,dx \right ] f_Y(y)\,dy. \end {aligned} \]
Interchanging the order of integration, \[ \begin {aligned} E[E(X\mid Y)] &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } x \left [ \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)f_Y(y)\,dy \right ]dx. \end {aligned} \]
Since \[ f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) = \frac {f_{X,Y}(x,y)}{f_Y(y)}, \] we have \[ f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)f_Y(y) = f_{X,Y}(x,y). \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} E[E(X\mid Y)] &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } x \left [ \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_{X,Y}(x,y)\,dy \right ]dx\\ &= \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } x f_X(x)\,dx\\ &= E(X). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ E[E(X\mid Y)]=E(X). \]
Problem 37
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be random variables with \(E(X^2)<\infty \).
Prove the Law of Total Variance: \[ \operatorname {Var}(X) = E\!\left [\operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y)\right ] + \operatorname {Var}\!\left (E(X\mid Y)\right ). \]
Solution
Recall that \[ \operatorname {Var}(X) = E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2. \]
For each value of \(Y\), \[ \operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y) = E(X^2\mid Y)-[E(X\mid Y)]^2. \]
Taking expectations, \[ \begin {aligned} E[\operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y)] &= E[E(X^2\mid Y)] - E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ). \end {aligned} \]
By the Law of Total Expectation, \[ E[E(X^2\mid Y)] = E(X^2). \]
Therefore, \[ E[\operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y)] = E(X^2) - E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ). \]
Also, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(E(X\mid Y)) &= E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ) - \left (E[E(X\mid Y)]\right )^2. \end {aligned} \]
Again using the Law of Total Expectation, \[ E[E(X\mid Y)] = E(X). \]
Thus, \[ \operatorname {Var}(E(X\mid Y)) = E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ) - [E(X)]^2. \]
Adding the two expressions, \[ \begin {aligned} &E[\operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y)] + \operatorname {Var}(E(X\mid Y))\\ &= E(X^2) - E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ) + E\left ([E(X\mid Y)]^2\right ) - [E(X)]^2\\ &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= \operatorname {Var}(X). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \operatorname {Var}(X) = E[\operatorname {Var}(X\mid Y)] + \operatorname {Var}(E(X\mid Y)). \]
Problem 38
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be continuous random variables with joint probability density function \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 32(x^2+y^2), & 0<x<1,\quad 0<y<1,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Find the random variable \[ E(X\mid Y). \]
Solution
We first find the marginal density of \(Y\).
For \(0<y<1\), \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= \int _0^1 \frac 32(x^2+y^2)\,dx\\ &= \frac 32 \left ( \frac 13+y^2 \right )\\ &= \frac 12+\frac 32y^2\\ &= \frac {3y^2+1}{2}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y) &= \frac {f(x,y)}{f_Y(y)}\\ &= \frac { \frac 32(x^2+y^2) }{ \frac 12(3y^2+1) }\\ &= \frac {3(x^2+y^2)} {3y^2+1}, \end {aligned} \] for \(0<x<1\).
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X\mid Y=y) &= \int _0^1 x f_{X\mid Y}(x\mid y)\,dx\\ &= \frac {3}{3y^2+1} \int _0^1 (x^3+xy^2)\,dx\\ &= \frac {3}{3y^2+1} \left ( \frac 14+\frac {y^2}{2} \right )\\ &= \frac {3(2y^2+1)} {4(3y^2+1)}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence the conditional expectation as a random variable is \[ E(X\mid Y) = \frac {3(2Y^2+1)} {4(3Y^2+1)}. \]
Problem 39
For given random variables \(Y\) and \(Z\), suppose that \(X\) is selected according to \[ X= \begin {cases} Y, & \text {with probability }p,\\ Z, & \text {with probability }1-p, \end {cases} \] where the random choice determining whether \(Y\) or \(Z\) is selected is independent of \(Y\) and \(Z\).
Find \(E(X)\) in terms of \(E(Y)\) and \(E(Z)\).
Solution
Let \(I\) be the indicator of the event that \(Y\) is selected. Then \[ P(I=1)=p, \qquad P(I=0)=1-p, \] and \[ X=IY+(1-I)Z. \]
Since \(I\) is independent of \(Y\) and \(Z\), \[ E(IY)=E(I)E(Y)=pE(Y), \] and \[ E[(1-I)Z] = E(1-I)E(Z) = (1-p)E(Z). \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X) &= E[IY+(1-I)Z]\\ &= pE(Y)+(1-p)E(Z). \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ E(X) = pE(Y)+(1-p)E(Z). \]
Problem 40
Let \(X\) be a continuous random variable with probability density function \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} 6x(1-x), & 0\leq x\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Solution
Therefore, \[ M_X(t) = 6\int _0^1 x(1-x)e^{tx}\,dx. \]
Writing \[ x(1-x)=x-x^2, \] we have \[ M_X(t) = 6\left [ \int _0^1 xe^{tx}\,dx - \int _0^1 x^2e^{tx}\,dx \right ]. \]
After integration by parts, \[ M_X(t) = \frac { 6\left [ t+(t-2)e^t+2 \right ] }{t^3}, \qquad t\neq 0. \]
At \(t=0\), \[ M_X(0)=1. \]
Thus, \[ M_X(t) = \begin {cases} \dfrac { 6\left [t+(t-2)e^t+2\right ] }{t^3}, & t\neq 0,\\[3mm] 1, & t=0. \end {cases} \]
To evaluate this derivative conveniently, expand \(M_X(t)\) around \(t=0\). Using \[ e^t = 1+t+\frac {t^2}{2} +\frac {t^3}{6} +\frac {t^4}{24} +\cdots , \] we obtain \[ M_X(t) = 1+\frac 12t+\frac {3}{20}t^2+\cdots . \]
Therefore, \[ M_X'(0)=\frac 12. \]
Hence, \[ E(X)=\frac 12. \]
Problem 41
Let \(X\) be uniformly distributed on the interval \((a,b)\), where \(a<b\). Find the moment-generating function of \(X\).
Solution
Since \[ X\sim \operatorname {Unif}(a,b), \] its density is \[ f_X(x) = \frac 1{b-a}, \qquad a<x<b. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} M_X(t) &= E(e^{tX})\\ &= \frac 1{b-a} \int _a^b e^{tx}\,dx. \end {aligned} \]
For \(t\neq 0\), \[ \begin {aligned} M_X(t) &= \frac 1{b-a} \left [ \frac {e^{tx}}{t} \right ]_a^b\\ &= \frac {e^{bt}-e^{at}} {(b-a)t}. \end {aligned} \]
Also, \[ M_X(0)=1. \]
Thus, \[ M_X(t) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {e^{bt}-e^{at}} {(b-a)t}, & t\neq 0,\\[3mm] 1, & t=0. \end {cases} \]
Problem 42
Let \(X\) be a geometric random variable with parameter \(p\), using the convention \[ P(X=k)=p(1-p)^{k-1}, \qquad k=1,2,\ldots . \]
Let \[ q=1-p. \]
Solution
Factor out \(pe^t\): \[ M_X(t) = pe^t \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } (qe^t)^{k-1}. \]
The geometric series converges when \[ |qe^t|<1. \]
Since \(q>0\), this is equivalent to \[ t<-\ln q. \]
Therefore, \[ M_X(t) = \frac {pe^t}{1-qe^t}, \qquad t<-\ln q. \]
Hence, \[ E(X) = M_X'(0) = \frac {p}{(1-q)^2}. \]
Since \[ 1-q=p, \] we obtain \[ E(X)=\frac 1p. \]
Differentiate again: \[ M_X''(t) = \frac { pe^t(1+qe^t) }{ (1-qe^t)^3 }. \]
Therefore, \[ E(X^2) = M_X''(0) = \frac {1+q}{p^2}. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(X) &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= \frac {1+q}{p^2} - \frac 1{p^2}\\ &= \frac {q}{p^2}. \end {aligned} \]
Since \(q=1-p\), \[ \operatorname {Var}(X) = \frac {1-p}{p^2}. \]
Problem 43
Suppose that \[ M_X(t)=\frac 1{1-t}, \qquad t<1, \] is the moment-generating function of a random variable \(X\).
Find the moment-generating function of \[ Y=2X+1. \]
Solution
By definition, \[ M_Y(t) = E(e^{tY}). \]
Since \[ Y=2X+1, \] we have \[ \begin {aligned} M_Y(t) &= E\left (e^{t(2X+1)}\right )\\ &= e^tE(e^{2tX})\\ &= e^tM_X(2t). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ M_Y(t) = e^t \frac 1{1-2t}. \]
The MGF \(M_X(2t)\) is finite provided \[ 2t<1, \] that is, \[ t<\frac 12. \]
Hence, \[ M_Y(t) = \frac {e^t}{1-2t}, \qquad t<\frac 12. \]
Problem 44
For a random variable \(X\), \[ M_X(t) = \left ( \frac {2}{2-t} \right )^3. \]
Find \(E(X)\) and \(\operatorname {Var}(X)\).
Solution
Write \[ M_X(t) = 8(2-t)^{-3}. \]
Differentiating, \[ M_X'(t) = 24(2-t)^{-4}. \]
Therefore, \[ E(X) = M_X'(0) = \frac {24}{16} = \frac 32. \]
Differentiating again, \[ M_X''(t) = 96(2-t)^{-5}. \]
Thus, \[ E(X^2) = M_X''(0) = \frac {96}{32} = 3. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(X) &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= 3-\left (\frac 32\right )^2\\ &= 3-\frac 94\\ &= \frac 34. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ E(X)=\frac 32, \qquad \operatorname {Var}(X)=\frac 34. \]
Problem 45
Let \[ Z\sim N(0,1). \]
Using \[ M_Z(t)=e^{t^2/2}, \] calculate \[ E(Z^n), \] where \(n\) is a positive integer.
Solution
The moment-generating function has the power-series representation \[ M_Z(t) = \sum _{n=0}^{\infty } \frac {E(Z^n)}{n!}t^n. \]
On the other hand, \[ M_Z(t) = e^{t^2/2}. \]
Expanding the exponential, \[ \begin {aligned} e^{t^2/2} &= \sum _{k=0}^{\infty } \frac 1{k!} \left (\frac {t^2}{2}\right )^k\\ &= \sum _{k=0}^{\infty } \frac {t^{2k}}{2^k k!}. \end {aligned} \]
There are no odd powers of \(t\). Therefore, \[ E(Z^n)=0 \] whenever \(n\) is odd.
If \[ n=2k, \] then comparison of the coefficient of \(t^{2k}\) gives \[ \frac {E(Z^{2k})}{(2k)!} = \frac 1{2^k k!}. \]
Thus, \[ E(Z^{2k}) = \frac {(2k)!}{2^k k!}. \]
Equivalently, \[ E(Z^{2k}) = (2k-1)!!. \]
Therefore, \[ E(Z^n) = \begin {cases} 0, & n\text { odd},\\[2mm] \dfrac {n!} {2^{n/2}(n/2)!}, & n\text { even}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 46
Let \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_n \] be independent random variables with \[ X_i\sim N(\mu _i,\sigma _i^2), \qquad i=1,\ldots ,n. \]
Let \[ a_1,\ldots ,a_n \] be constants.
Using moment-generating functions, prove that \[ \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i \sim N\left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i\mu _i, \, \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i^2\sigma _i^2 \right ). \]
Deduce that if \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_n \overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim } N(\mu ,\sigma ^2), \] then \[ \overline X = \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i \sim N\left ( \mu ,\frac {\sigma ^2}{n} \right ). \]
Solution
For \[ X_i\sim N(\mu _i,\sigma _i^2), \] the MGF is \[ M_{X_i}(t) = \exp \left ( \mu _i t+\frac 12\sigma _i^2t^2 \right ). \]
Let \[ S=\sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i. \]
Then \[ M_S(t) = E\left [ e^{t\sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i} \right ]. \]
Since the \(X_i\)’s are independent, \[ \begin {aligned} M_S(t) &= \prod _{i=1}^{n} E(e^{ta_iX_i})\\ &= \prod _{i=1}^{n} M_{X_i}(a_it). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} M_S(t) &= \prod _{i=1}^{n} \exp \left ( a_i\mu _i t + \frac 12a_i^2\sigma _i^2t^2 \right )\\ &= \exp \left [ t\sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i\mu _i + \frac {t^2}{2} \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i^2\sigma _i^2 \right ]. \end {aligned} \]
This is the MGF of a Normal random variable with mean \[ \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i\mu _i \] and variance \[ \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i^2\sigma _i^2. \]
Hence, \[ \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_iX_i \sim N\left ( \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i\mu _i, \, \sum _{i=1}^{n}a_i^2\sigma _i^2 \right ). \]
For the sample mean, take \[ a_i=\frac 1n, \qquad \mu _i=\mu , \qquad \sigma _i^2=\sigma ^2. \]
Then \[ E(\overline X) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \frac 1n\mu = \mu , \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(\overline X) = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \frac 1{n^2}\sigma ^2 = \frac {\sigma ^2}{n}. \]
Therefore, \[ \overline X \sim N\left ( \mu ,\frac {\sigma ^2}{n} \right ). \]
Problem 47
Let \[ X_1,X_2,\ldots ,X_n \] be independent geometric random variables, each with parameter \(p\), using the convention \[ P(X_i=k) = p(1-p)^{k-1}, \qquad k=1,2,\ldots . \]
Using moment-generating functions, prove that \[ X_1+\cdots +X_n \] has a negative binomial distribution with parameters \((n,p)\).
Solution
Let \[ q=1-p. \]
The MGF of a geometric random variable under this convention is \[ M_{X_i}(t) = \frac {pe^t}{1-qe^t}, \qquad t<-\ln q. \]
Define \[ S_n=X_1+\cdots +X_n. \]
Since \(X_1,\ldots ,X_n\) are independent, \[ \begin {aligned} M_{S_n}(t) &= \prod _{i=1}^{n}M_{X_i}(t)\\ &= \left ( \frac {pe^t}{1-qe^t} \right )^n. \end {aligned} \]
Now recall that if \[ W\sim \operatorname {NegBin}(n,p), \] where \(W\) denotes the trial on which the \(n\)-th success occurs, then \[ P(W=k) = \binom {k-1}{n-1} p^nq^{k-n}, \qquad k=n,n+1,\ldots . \]
Its MGF is \[ M_W(t) = \left ( \frac {pe^t}{1-qe^t} \right )^n. \]
Thus, \[ M_{S_n}(t)=M_W(t) \] in a neighborhood of \(0\).
By uniqueness of moment-generating functions, \[ S_n = X_1+\cdots +X_n \sim \operatorname {NegBin}(n,p). \]
Problem 48
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent binomial random variables with \[ X\sim \operatorname {Bin}(n,p), \qquad Y\sim \operatorname {Bin}(m,p). \]
Calculate \[ P(X=i\mid X+Y=j) \] and interpret the result.
Solution
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ X+Y \sim \operatorname {Bin}(n+m,p). \]
Therefore, \[ P(X=i\mid X+Y=j) = \frac { P(X=i,Y=j-i) }{ P(X+Y=j) }. \]
The numerator is \[ \begin {aligned} P(X=i,Y=j-i) &= P(X=i)P(Y=j-i)\\ &= \binom ni p^i(1-p)^{n-i}\\ &\qquad \times \binom m{j-i} p^{j-i}(1-p)^{m-j+i}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ P(X=i,Y=j-i) = \binom ni \binom m{j-i} p^j(1-p)^{n+m-j}. \]
Also, \[ P(X+Y=j) = \binom {n+m}{j} p^j(1-p)^{n+m-j}. \]
Hence, \[ P(X=i\mid X+Y=j) = \frac { \binom ni \binom m{j-i} }{ \binom {n+m}{j} }, \] for \[ \max \{0,j-m\} \leq i \leq \min \{n,j\}. \]
This is the probability mass function of a hypergeometric random variable.
Conditional on there being exactly \(j\) total successes among the \(n+m\) Bernoulli trials, all choices of the \(j\) successful trials are equally likely. The random variable \(X\) counts how many of those \(j\) successes occur among the first \(n\) trials.
Therefore, \[ X\mid (X+Y=j) \sim \operatorname {Hypergeom}(n+m,n,j). \]
Problem 49
Let \(X,Y,Z\) be independent Poisson random variables with parameters \[ \lambda _1,\lambda _2,\lambda _3, \] respectively.
For \[ y=0,1,\ldots ,t, \] calculate \[ P(Y=y\mid X+Y+Z=t). \]
Solution
Let \[ T=X+Y+Z. \]
Since independent Poisson random variables add, \[ T \sim \operatorname {Pois} (\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3). \]
Also, \[ X+Z \sim \operatorname {Pois}(\lambda _1+\lambda _3), \] and \(X+Z\) is independent of \(Y\).
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P(Y=y\mid T=t) &= \frac { P(Y=y,\ X+Z=t-y) }{ P(T=t) }\\ &= \frac { P(Y=y) P(X+Z=t-y) }{ P(T=t) }. \end {aligned} \]
Substituting the Poisson probabilities, \[ \begin {aligned} P(Y=y\mid T=t) &= \frac { e^{-\lambda _2} \dfrac {\lambda _2^y}{y!} \, e^{-(\lambda _1+\lambda _3)} \dfrac {(\lambda _1+\lambda _3)^{t-y}}{(t-y)!} }{ e^{-(\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)} \dfrac { (\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)^t }{t!} }. \end {aligned} \]
The exponential terms cancel, giving \[ P(Y=y\mid T=t) = \binom ty \frac { \lambda _2^y (\lambda _1+\lambda _3)^{t-y} }{ (\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3)^t }. \]
Equivalently, \[ P(Y=y\mid T=t) = \binom ty \left ( \frac {\lambda _2} {\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3} \right )^y \left ( \frac {\lambda _1+\lambda _3} {\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3} \right )^{t-y}. \]
Thus, \[ Y\mid (X+Y+Z=t) \sim \operatorname {Bin} \left ( t, \frac {\lambda _2} {\lambda _1+\lambda _2+\lambda _3} \right ). \]
Problem 50
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be i.i.d. positive random variables, and let \(c>0\).
For each part below, fill in the appropriate equality or inequality symbol.
Write \(=\) if the two sides are always equal, \(\leq \) if the left-hand side is less than or equal to the right-hand side but not necessarily equal, and similarly for \(\geq \). If no relation holds in general, write \(?\).
Solution
Since \(\log x\) is concave on \((0,\infty )\), Jensen’s inequality gives \[ E(\log X)\leq \log (E X). \]
By Cauchy–Schwarz, \[ [E(X)]^2\leq E(X^2). \]
Since \(X>0\), \[ E(X)\leq \sqrt {E(X^2)}. \]
Indeed, \[ \sin ^2 X+\cos ^2 X=1 \] for every value of \(X\). Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} E(\sin ^2 X)+E(\cos ^2 X) &= E(\sin ^2 X+\cos ^2 X)\\ &= E(1)\\ &= 1. \end {aligned} \]
By Cauchy–Schwarz, \[ [E(|X|)]^2 \leq E(|X|^2) = E(X^2). \]
Hence, \[ E(|X|) \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)}. \]
Since \(X>0\), \[ X>c \quad \Longleftrightarrow \quad X^3>c^3. \]
Applying Markov’s inequality to the nonnegative random variable \(X^3\), \[ P(X>c) = P(X^3>c^3) \leq \frac {E(X^3)}{c^3}. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are identically distributed and independent, the joint distribution of \((X,Y)\) is unchanged when \(X\) and \(Y\) are exchanged.
Therefore, \[ P(X\leq Y)=P(Y\leq X)=P(X\geq Y). \]
This follows directly from the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality: \[ |E(XY)| \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are positive, \[ E(XY)\geq 0, \] and hence \[ E(XY) \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \]
Indeed, \[ \{X+Y>10\} \subseteq \{X>5\}\cup \{Y>5\}. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X+Y>10) \leq P(X>5\text { or }Y>5). \]
Pointwise, \[ \min (X,Y)\leq X \] and \[ \min (X,Y)\leq Y. \]
Taking expectations gives \[ E(\min (X,Y))\leq E(X) \] and \[ E(\min (X,Y))\leq E(Y). \]
Therefore, \[ E(\min (X,Y)) \leq \min (E X,E Y). \]
No fixed relation holds in general.
By independence, \[ E\left (\frac {X}{Y}\right ) = E(X)E\left (\frac 1Y\right ), \] provided the expectations exist. This is generally not equal to \[ \frac {E(X)}{E(Y)}. \]
For the left-hand side, \[ E\left (X^2(X^2+1)\right ) = E(X^4)+E(X^2). \]
For the right-hand side, independence gives \[ \begin {aligned} E\left (X^2(Y^2+1)\right ) &= E(X^2Y^2)+E(X^2)\\ &= E(X^2)E(Y^2)+E(X^2). \end {aligned} \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are identically distributed, \[ E(Y^2)=E(X^2), \] so \[ E\left (X^2(Y^2+1)\right ) = [E(X^2)]^2+E(X^2). \]
Finally, \[ E(X^4)\geq [E(X^2)]^2 \] because \[ \operatorname {Var}(X^2)\geq 0. \]
Therefore, \[ E\left (X^2(X^2+1)\right ) \geq E\left (X^2(Y^2+1)\right ). \]
Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are i.i.d., exchanging \(X\) and \(Y\) does not change their joint distribution. Hence, \[ E\left (\frac {X^3}{X^3+Y^3}\right ) = E\left (\frac {Y^3}{X^3+Y^3}\right ). \]
In fact, since \[ \frac {X^3}{X^3+Y^3} + \frac {Y^3}{X^3+Y^3} = 1, \] the two equal expectations must each be \[ \frac 12. \]
Problem 51
Let \(X\) be an exponential random variable with parameter \(1\), so that \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} e^{-x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Recall that \[ E(X)=1, \qquad \operatorname {Var}(X)=1, \] and the moment generating function of \(X\) is \[ M_X(t)=\frac {1}{1-t}, \qquad t<1. \]
Find the value of \(t\) that gives the best bound, and calculate the resulting Chernoff bound.
Also calculate the exact value of \(P(X\geq 10)\) and compare it with the three bounds.
Hint: Consider the function \[ g(x)=\frac {1}{1+x}. \] Check whether the conditions for Jensen’s inequality are satisfied.
Solution
Since \[ E(X)=1, \] we obtain \[ P(X\geq 10) \leq \frac {1}{10}. \]
Thus, the Markov bound is \[ P(X\geq 10)\leq 0.1. \]
Therefore, \[ \{X\geq 10\} \subseteq \{|X-E(X)|\geq 9\}. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} P(X\geq 10) &\leq P(|X-E(X)|\geq 9)\\ &\leq \frac {\operatorname {Var}(X)}{9^2}\\ &= \frac {1}{81}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, the Chebyshev bound is \[ P(X\geq 10) \leq \frac {1}{81} \approx 0.01235. \]
Since \[ M_X(t)=\frac {1}{1-t}, \qquad t<1, \] we have \[ P(X\geq 10) \leq \frac {e^{-10t}}{1-t}, \qquad 0<t<1. \]
We now minimize \[ h(t)=\frac {e^{-10t}}{1-t}. \]
It is convenient to minimize its logarithm: \[ \log h(t) = -10t-\log (1-t). \]
Differentiating, \[ \frac {d}{dt}\log h(t) = -10+\frac {1}{1-t}. \]
Setting this equal to zero, \[ -10+\frac {1}{1-t}=0. \]
Thus, \[ \frac {1}{1-t}=10, \] so \[ 1-t=\frac {1}{10}, \] and therefore \[ t=\frac {9}{10}. \]
Substituting this value into the Chernoff bound, \[ \begin {aligned} P(X\geq 10) &\leq \frac {e^{-10(9/10)}}{1-9/10}\\ &= \frac {e^{-9}}{1/10}\\ &= 10e^{-9}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, the optimized Chernoff bound is \[ P(X\geq 10) \leq 10e^{-9} \approx 0.001234. \]
Numerically, \[ \frac {1}{10}=0.1, \] \[ \frac {1}{81}\approx 0.01235, \] and \[ 10e^{-9}\approx 0.001234. \]
Therefore, \[ 10e^{-9} < \frac {1}{81} < \frac {1}{10}. \]
Hence, among these three inequalities, the Chernoff bound gives the sharpest upper bound.
The exact probability can be calculated directly from the exponential distribution: \[ \begin {aligned} P(X\geq 10) &= \int _{10}^{\infty }e^{-x}\,dx\\ &= e^{-10}. \end {aligned} \]
Numerically, \[ e^{-10}\approx 0.0000454. \]
Thus, \[ \underbrace {e^{-10}}_{\text {exact}} < \underbrace {10e^{-9}}_{\text {Chernoff}} < \underbrace {\frac {1}{81}}_{\text {Chebyshev}} < \underbrace {\frac {1}{10}}_{\text {Markov}}. \]
We have \[ g'(x) = -\frac {1}{(1+x)^2} \] and \[ g''(x) = \frac {2}{(1+x)^3}. \]
Since \[ g''(x)>0 \qquad \text {for }x>0, \] the function \(g\) is convex on the support of \(X\).
Therefore, Jensen’s inequality gives \[ g(E(X)) \leq E(g(X)). \]
Hence, \[ \frac {1}{1+E(X)} \leq E\left (\frac {1}{1+X}\right ). \]
Equivalently, \[ E\left (\frac {1}{1+X}\right ) \geq \frac {1}{1+E(X)}. \]
Since \(E(X)=1\), \[ E\left (\frac {1}{1+X}\right ) \geq \frac 12. \]
Problem 52
Suppose that the number \(X\) of letters handled by a post office on a given day satisfies \[ E(X)=10{,}000 \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(X)=2000. \]
Using Chebyshev’s inequality, find a lower bound for \[ P(8000<X<12{,}000). \]
Solution
We can write \[ 8000<X<12{,}000 \] as \[ -2000<X-10{,}000<2000. \]
Thus, \[ P(8000<X<12{,}000) = P(|X-10{,}000|<2000). \]
Using the complement, \[ P(|X-10{,}000|<2000) = 1- P(|X-10{,}000|\geq 2000). \]
By Chebyshev’s inequality, \[ P(|X-10{,}000|\geq 2000) \leq \frac {2000}{2000^2}. \]
Therefore, \[ P(|X-10{,}000|\geq 2000) \leq 0.0005. \]
Hence, \[ P(8000<X<12{,}000) \geq 1-0.0005 = 0.9995. \]
Thus, \[ P(8000<X<12{,}000) \geq 0.9995. \]
Problem 53
Roll a fair six-sided die and let \(X\) denote the outcome.
Solution
Also, \[ E(X^2) = \frac 16 (1^2+2^2+3^2+4^2+5^2+6^2) = \frac {91}{6}. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(X) &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= \frac {91}{6} - \frac {49}{4}\\ &= \frac {35}{12}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ P(X\geq 6) \leq \frac {7/2}{6} = \frac 7{12} \approx 0.5833. \]
Therefore, \[ P\left ( \left |X-\frac 72\right | \geq \frac 32 \right ) \leq \frac {35}{27} \approx 1.296. \]
Since probabilities cannot exceed \(1\), this bound is trivial. The useful upper bound is simply \[ 1. \]
Also, \[ \left |X-\frac 72\right | \geq \frac 32 \] occurs when \[ X\leq 2 \qquad \text {or}\qquad X\geq 5. \]
Thus, \[ P\left ( \left |X-\frac 72\right | \geq \frac 32 \right ) = \frac 46 = \frac 23. \]
Therefore, both inequalities give valid upper bounds, but the bounds may be far from the exact probabilities.
Problem 54
The scores on an achievement test have population mean \[ \mu =500 \] and population standard deviation \[ \sigma =100. \]
Let \[ \overline X \] be the sample mean of a random sample of \(10\) students.
Without assuming that the population distribution is Normal, use Chebyshev’s inequality to find a lower bound for \[ P(460<\overline X<540). \]
Solution
Since the sample consists of independent observations, \[ E(\overline X)=500 \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(\overline X) = \frac {\sigma ^2}{n} = \frac {100^2}{10} = 1000. \]
Now, \[ \begin {aligned} P(460<\overline X<540) &= P(-40<\overline X-500<40)\\ &= P(|\overline X-500|<40). \end {aligned} \]
Using the complement, \[ P(|\overline X-500|<40) = 1- P(|\overline X-500|\geq 40). \]
By Chebyshev’s inequality, \[ P(|\overline X-500|\geq 40) \leq \frac {1000}{40^2}. \]
Thus, \[ P(|\overline X-500|\geq 40) \leq \frac {1000}{1600} = \frac 58. \]
Therefore, \[ P(460<\overline X<540) \geq 1-\frac 58 = \frac 38. \]
Hence, \[ P(460<\overline X<540) \geq \frac 38. \]
Problem 55
Suppose \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_n \] are independent Bernoulli random variables with unknown success probability \(p\), and define \[ \widehat p = \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i. \]
Let \[ \varepsilon >0 \qquad \text {and}\qquad 0<\alpha <1. \]
Using Chebyshev’s inequality, derive a sample-size condition that guarantees \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon ) \geq 1-\alpha \] for every \[ 0<p<1. \]
Solution
Since \[ X_i\sim \operatorname {Bernoulli}(p), \] we have \[ E(X_i)=p \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=p(1-p). \]
Therefore, \[ E(\widehat p)=p, \] and by independence, \[ \operatorname {Var}(\widehat p) = \frac {p(1-p)}{n}. \]
By Chebyshev’s inequality, \[ P(|\widehat p-p|\geq \varepsilon ) \leq \frac { p(1-p) }{ n\varepsilon ^2 }. \]
Hence, \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon ) \geq 1- \frac { p(1-p) }{ n\varepsilon ^2 }. \]
To guarantee \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon ) \geq 1-\alpha , \] it is sufficient that \[ \frac { p(1-p) }{ n\varepsilon ^2 } \leq \alpha . \]
Equivalently, \[ n \geq \frac { p(1-p) }{ \varepsilon ^2\alpha }. \]
However, \(p\) is unknown. Since \[ p(1-p) \leq \frac 14 \] for every \(0<p<1\), a sufficient condition that does not depend on \(p\) is \[ n \geq \frac { 1 }{ 4\varepsilon ^2\alpha }. \]
Thus, choosing \[ n \geq \frac 1{4\varepsilon ^2\alpha } \] guarantees \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon ) \geq 1-\alpha \] for every Bernoulli success probability \(p\).
Problem 56
A quality-control officer wants to estimate the proportion \(p\) of defective nails produced by a company.
A random sample of \(n\) nails is inspected, and \[ \widehat p \] denotes the fraction of defective nails in the sample.
Using Chebyshev’s inequality, determine a sample size sufficient to guarantee that, with probability at least \(98\%\), \[ |\widehat p-p|<0.03, \] regardless of the unknown value of \(p\).
Solution
From the general Bernoulli estimation bound, \[ n \geq \frac 1{4\varepsilon ^2\alpha } \] is sufficient to guarantee \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon ) \geq 1-\alpha . \]
Here, \[ \varepsilon =0.03 \] and \[ 1-\alpha =0.98, \] so \[ \alpha =0.02. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} n &\geq \frac { 1 }{ 4(0.03)^2(0.02) }\\ &= 13888.888\ldots . \end {aligned} \]
Since the sample size must be an integer, \[ n\geq 13889. \]
Thus, at least \[ 13{,}889 \] nails should be inspected.
Problem 57
A coin has an unknown probability \(p\) of landing heads.
The coin is flipped independently \(3000\) times, and \[ \widehat p \] denotes the fraction of flips that result in heads.
Use Chebyshev’s inequality to show that \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<0.03) \geq 0.90. \]
Solution
Let \[ X_i = \begin {cases} 1, & \text {if the \(i\)-th flip is heads},\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Then \[ X_i\sim \operatorname {Bernoulli}(p) \] and \[ \widehat p = \frac 1{3000} \sum _{i=1}^{3000}X_i. \]
Therefore, \[ E(\widehat p)=p \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(\widehat p) = \frac {p(1-p)}{3000}. \]
By Chebyshev’s inequality, \[ P(|\widehat p-p|\geq 0.03) \leq \frac { p(1-p) }{ (0.03)^2(3000) }. \]
Since \[ p(1-p)\leq \frac 14, \] we obtain \[ P(|\widehat p-p|\geq 0.03) \leq \frac { 1 }{ 4(0.03)^2(3000) }. \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} P(|\widehat p-p|<0.03) &\geq 1- \frac { 1 }{ 4(0.03)^2(3000) }\\ &= 1-\frac 1{10.8}\\ &\approx 0.9074. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<0.03) \geq 0.9074 > 0.90. \]
Hence, \[ P(|\widehat p-p|<0.03) \geq 0.90. \]
Problem 58
Let \(X\) be a random variable and let \(k>0\) be a constant. Prove that \[ P(X>t) \leq \frac {E(e^{kX})}{e^{kt}}, \] whenever \(E(e^{kX})<\infty \).
Solution
Since the exponential function is increasing and \(k>0\), \[ X>t \] implies \[ e^{kX}>e^{kt}. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X>t) = P(e^{kX}>e^{kt}). \]
The random variable \[ e^{kX} \] is nonnegative. Hence, by Markov’s inequality, \[ P(e^{kX}\geq e^{kt}) \leq \frac {E(e^{kX})}{e^{kt}}. \]
Since \[ \{e^{kX}>e^{kt}\} \subseteq \{e^{kX}\geq e^{kt}\}, \] we obtain \[ P(X>t) \leq \frac {E(e^{kX})}{e^{kt}}. \]
Problem 59
Suppose that random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) satisfy \[ E[(X-Y)^2]=0. \]
Prove that \[ P(X=Y)=1. \]
Solution
The random variable \[ (X-Y)^2 \] is nonnegative.
For every \(\varepsilon >0\), Markov’s inequality gives \[ P\left ((X-Y)^2\geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {E[(X-Y)^2]}{\varepsilon }. \]
Since \[ E[(X-Y)^2]=0, \] we obtain \[ P\left ((X-Y)^2\geq \varepsilon \right )=0 \] for every \(\varepsilon >0\).
Now \[ \{X\neq Y\} = \{(X-Y)^2>0\}. \]
Also, \[ \{(X-Y)^2>0\} = \bigcup _{n=1}^{\infty } \left \{ (X-Y)^2\geq \frac 1n \right \}. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P(X\neq Y) &\leq \sum _{n=1}^{\infty } P\left ( (X-Y)^2\geq \frac 1n \right )\\ &= 0. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ P(X\neq Y)=0, \] and therefore \[ P(X=Y)=1. \]
Problem 60
Let \[ X_1,X_2,\ldots \] be independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables with density \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} 4x(1-x), & 0\leq x\leq 1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Find \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } \frac {X_1+\cdots +X_n}{n}. \]
Solution
As written, the proposed function is not a probability density function, because \[ \begin {aligned} \int _0^1 4x(1-x)\,dx &= 4\int _0^1(x-x^2)\,dx\\ &= 4\left ( \frac 12-\frac 13 \right )\\ &= \frac 23 \neq 1. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, the problem as stated does not define a valid distribution.
If the intended normalized density is \[ f(x)=6x(1-x), \qquad 0\leq x\leq 1, \] then \[ \begin {aligned} E(X_i) &= \int _0^1 x\,6x(1-x)\,dx\\ &= 6\int _0^1(x^2-x^3)\,dx\\ &= 6\left ( \frac 13-\frac 14 \right )\\ &= \frac 12. \end {aligned} \]
By the Strong Law of Large Numbers, \[ \frac {X_1+\cdots +X_n}{n} \longrightarrow E(X_1) \] with probability \(1\).
Thus, under the normalized density, \[ \frac {X_1+\cdots +X_n}{n} \longrightarrow \frac 12 \qquad \text {almost surely}. \]
Problem 61
The time \(X\), measured in hours, required for a student to finish an aptitude test has probability density function \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} 6(x-1)(2-x), & 1<x<2,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
A random sample of \(15\) students is selected.
Using the Central Limit Theorem, approximate the probability that the average time required to complete the test is less than \(1\) hour and \(25\) minutes.
Solution
Let \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_{15} \] be the completion times and let \[ \overline X = \frac 1{15} \sum _{i=1}^{15}X_i. \]
First calculate the population mean: \[ \begin {aligned} E(X) &= \int _1^2 x\,6(x-1)(2-x)\,dx\\ &= \frac 32. \end {aligned} \]
Also, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X^2) &= \int _1^2 x^2\,6(x-1)(2-x)\,dx\\ &= \frac {23}{10}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} \operatorname {Var}(X) &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= \frac {23}{10} - \frac 94\\ &= \frac 1{20}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ \mu =\frac 32, \qquad \sigma ^2=\frac 1{20}. \]
By the Central Limit Theorem, \[ \overline X \approx N\left ( \frac 32, \frac {1}{20(15)} \right ) = N\left ( \frac 32, \frac 1{300} \right ). \]
Now \[ 1\text { hour }25\text { minutes} = 1+\frac {25}{60} = \frac {17}{12} \] hours.
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P\left ( \overline X<\frac {17}{12} \right ) &\approx P\left ( Z< \frac { \frac {17}{12}-\frac 32 }{ 1/\sqrt {300} } \right )\\ &= P(Z<-1.443). \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ P\left ( \overline X<\frac {17}{12} \right ) \approx \Phi (-1.443) \approx 0.075. \]
Thus, the approximate probability is \[ 0.075. \]
Problem 62
Twenty numbers are selected independently and uniformly from the interval \((0,1)\).
Using the Central Limit Theorem, approximate the probability that their sum is at least \(8\).
Solution
Let \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_{20} \overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim } \operatorname {Unif}(0,1) \] and define \[ S_{20} = \sum _{i=1}^{20}X_i. \]
For a \(\operatorname {Unif}(0,1)\) random variable, \[ E(X_i)=\frac 12 \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=\frac 1{12}. \]
Therefore, \[ E(S_{20}) = 20\left (\frac 12\right ) = 10, \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(S_{20}) = 20\left (\frac 1{12}\right ) = \frac 53. \]
By the Central Limit Theorem, \[ S_{20} \approx N\left ( 10,\frac 53 \right ). \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} P(S_{20}\geq 8) &\approx P\left ( Z\geq \frac {8-10}{\sqrt {5/3}} \right )\\ &= P(Z\geq -1.549). \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P(S_{20}\geq 8) &\approx 1-\Phi (-1.549)\\ &= \Phi (1.549)\\ &\approx 0.939. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, the approximate probability is \[ 0.939. \]
Problem 63
A biologist wants to estimate the mean lifetime \(\ell \) of a certain type of insect.
Suppose the insect lifetimes are independent random variables with \[ E(X_i)=\ell \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=1.5 \] days squared.
The biologist estimates \(\ell \) using the sample mean \[ \overline X. \]
Using the Central Limit Theorem, determine approximately how large the sample size \(n\) should be so that \[ P(|\overline X-\ell |<0.2) \approx 0.98. \]
Solution
For a sample of size \(n\), \(E(\overline X)=\ell \) and \(\operatorname {Var}(\overline X) = \frac {1.5}{n}.\) By the Central Limit Theorem, \[ \frac { \overline X-\ell }{ \sqrt {1.5/n} } \approx N(0,1). \]
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} P(|\overline X-\ell |<0.2) &\approx P\left ( \left | Z \right | < \frac {0.2\sqrt n}{\sqrt {1.5}} \right ). \end {aligned} \]
We want this probability to be approximately \(0.98\). Therefore, \[ P(-z<Z<z)=0.98. \]
This requires \[ \Phi (z)=0.99. \]
Using \[ z_{0.99}\approx 2.33, \] we set \[ \frac {0.2\sqrt n}{\sqrt {1.5}} \approx 2.33. \]
Hence, \[ \sqrt n \approx \frac { 2.33\sqrt {1.5} }{0.2}. \]
Squaring, \[ n \approx \left ( \frac { 2.33\sqrt {1.5} }{0.2} \right )^2 \approx 203.58. \]
Therefore, the sample size should be rounded up to \[ n=204. \]
Problem 64
A random sample of size \(24\) is taken from a distribution with probability density function \[ f(x) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 19\left (x+\dfrac 52\right ), & 1<x<3,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Let \(\overline X\) be the sample mean.
Using the Central Limit Theorem, approximate \[ P(2<\overline X<2.15). \]
Solution
First calculate the population mean: \[ \begin {aligned} \mu &= E(X)\\ &= \int _1^3 x \frac 19 \left (x+\frac 52\right ) \,dx\\ &= \frac {56}{27}. \end {aligned} \]
Next, \[ \begin {aligned} E(X^2) &= \int _1^3 x^2 \frac 19 \left (x+\frac 52\right ) \,dx\\ &= \frac {125}{27}. \end {aligned} \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} \sigma ^2 &= E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2\\ &= \frac {125}{27} - \left (\frac {56}{27}\right )^2\\ &= \frac {239}{729}. \end {aligned} \]
For \(n=24\), \[ E(\overline X) = \frac {56}{27}, \] and \[ \operatorname {Var}(\overline X) = \frac {239}{729(24)}. \]
Thus, \[ \operatorname {SD}(\overline X) = \sqrt { \frac {239}{729(24)} }. \]
By the Central Limit Theorem, \[ \overline X \approx N\left ( \frac {56}{27}, \frac {239}{729(24)} \right ). \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P(2<\overline X<2.15) &\approx P\left ( \frac { 2-\frac {56}{27} }{ \sqrt {239/[729(24)]} } < Z < \frac { 2.15-\frac {56}{27} }{ \sqrt {239/[729(24)]} } \right )\\ &= P(-0.634<Z<0.650). \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} P(2<\overline X<2.15) &\approx \Phi (0.650)-\Phi (-0.634)\\ &\approx 0.479. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, the approximate probability is \[ 0.479. \]
Problem 65
A random sample of size \(n\geq 1\) is taken from the distribution with probability density function \[ f(x) = \frac 12e^{-|x|}, \qquad -\infty <x<\infty . \]
Let \[ \overline X = \frac 1n \sum _{i=1}^{n}X_i. \]
Find \[ P(\overline X>0). \]
Solution
The density satisfies \[ f(x)=f(-x), \] so the distribution of each \(X_i\) is symmetric about \(0\).
Since the \(X_i\)’s are independent, their sum \[ S_n=X_1+\cdots +X_n \] is also symmetric about \(0\).
Because the distribution is continuous, \[ P(S_n=0)=0. \]
By symmetry, \[ P(S_n>0) = P(S_n<0). \]
These two probabilities sum to \(1\), so \[ P(S_n>0)=\frac 12. \]
Since \[ \overline X>0 \] if and only if \[ S_n>0, \] we obtain \[ P(\overline X>0)=\frac 12. \]
Problem 66
For the scores on an achievement test given to a certain population of students, the population mean is \[ \mu =500 \] and the population standard deviation is \[ \sigma =100. \]
Let \(\overline X\) be the mean of the scores of a random sample of \(35\) students.
Using the Central Limit Theorem, estimate \[ P(460<\overline X<540). \]
Solution
For a sample of size \[ n=35, \] the sample mean satisfies \[ E(\overline X)=500 \] and \[ \operatorname {SD}(\overline X) = \frac {100}{\sqrt {35}}. \]
By the Central Limit Theorem, \[ \overline X \approx N\left ( 500, \frac {100^2}{35} \right ). \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} P(460<\overline X<540) &\approx P\left ( \frac {460-500}{100/\sqrt {35}} < Z < \frac {540-500}{100/\sqrt {35}} \right )\\ &= P(-2.366<Z<2.366). \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} P(460<\overline X<540) &\approx \Phi (2.366)-\Phi (-2.366)\\ &= 2\Phi (2.366)-1\\ &\approx 0.982. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, the approximate probability is \[ 0.982. \]
Problem 67
Let \[ X\sim \operatorname {Unif}(0,1), \] and define \[ Y=-\ln X. \]
Solution
Since \[ 0<X<1, \] we have \[ -\ln X>0. \] Therefore, \[ Y>0. \]
Now suppose \(y>0\). Then \[ \begin {aligned} F_Y(y) &= P(Y\leq y)\\ &= P(-\ln X\leq y). \end {aligned} \]
Since \[ -\ln X\leq y \] is equivalent to \[ \ln X\geq -y, \] and hence \[ X\geq e^{-y}, \] we obtain \[ \begin {aligned} F_Y(y) &= P(X\geq e^{-y})\\ &= 1-P(X<e^{-y}). \end {aligned} \]
Because \[ X\sim \operatorname {Unif}(0,1), \] we have \[ P(X<e^{-y})=e^{-y}. \]
Therefore, \[ F_Y(y) = 1-e^{-y}, \qquad y>0. \]
Thus, \[ F_Y(y) = \begin {cases} 0, & y\leq 0,\\[1mm] 1-e^{-y}, & y>0. \end {cases} \]
Hence, \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} e^{-y}, & y>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 68
Let \[ X\sim N(0,1), \] and define \[ Y=X^2. \]
Solution
Thus, a given positive value of \(Y\) has two possible preimages: \[ x=\sqrt y \qquad \text {and}\qquad x=-\sqrt y. \]
Therefore, \[ F_Y(y)=0, \qquad y<0. \]
Now suppose \(y\geq 0\). Then \[ \begin {aligned} F_Y(y) &= P(Y\leq y)\\ &= P(X^2\leq y). \end {aligned} \]
The event \[ X^2\leq y \] is equivalent to \[ -\sqrt y\leq X\leq \sqrt y. \]
Hence, \[ \begin {aligned} F_Y(y) &= P(-\sqrt y\leq X\leq \sqrt y)\\ &= \Phi (\sqrt y)-\Phi (-\sqrt y). \end {aligned} \]
Using \[ \Phi (-a)=1-\Phi (a), \] we obtain \[ F_Y(y) = 2\Phi (\sqrt y)-1. \]
Thus, \[ F_Y(y) = \begin {cases} 0, & y<0,\\[1mm] 2\Phi (\sqrt y)-1, & y\geq 0. \end {cases} \]
Using the chain rule, \[ \begin {aligned} f_Y(y) &= 2\phi (\sqrt y) \frac {1}{2\sqrt y}\\ &= \frac {\phi (\sqrt y)}{\sqrt y}. \end {aligned} \]
Since \[ \phi (x) = \frac 1{\sqrt {2\pi }} e^{-x^2/2}, \] we have \[ \phi (\sqrt y) = \frac 1{\sqrt {2\pi }} e^{-y/2}. \]
Therefore, \[ f_Y(y) = \frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi y}} e^{-y/2}, \qquad y>0. \]
Thus, \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi y}}e^{-y/2}, & y>0,\\[2mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 69
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent exponential random variables with common parameter \(\lambda >0\): \[ X,Y \overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim } \operatorname {Exp}(\lambda ). \]
Define \[ T=X+Y. \]
Using the convolution formula \[ f_T(t) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx, \] find the probability density function of \(T\).
Be sure to determine the correct limits of integration and the support of \(T\).
Solution
Since \[ X,Y\sim \operatorname {Exp}(\lambda ), \] their common density is \[ f_X(x)=f_Y(x) = \begin {cases} \lambda e^{-\lambda x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Since \(X>0\) and \(Y>0\), \[ T=X+Y>0. \]
Therefore, \[ f_T(t)=0, \qquad t\leq 0. \]
Now suppose \(t>0\). The convolution formula gives \[ f_T(t) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx. \]
For the integrand to be nonzero, we need both \[ x>0 \] and \[ t-x>0. \]
Thus, \[ 0<x<t. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} f_T(t) &= \int _0^t \lambda e^{-\lambda x} \lambda e^{-\lambda (t-x)} \,dx\\ &= \lambda ^2 e^{-\lambda t} \int _0^t dx\\ &= \lambda ^2 t e^{-\lambda t}. \end {aligned} \]
Hence, \[ f_T(t) = \begin {cases} \lambda ^2 t e^{-\lambda t}, & t>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 70
Let \[ X,Y \overset {\text {i.i.d.}}{\sim } \operatorname {Unif}(0,1), \] with \(X\) and \(Y\) independent, and define \[ T=X+Y. \]
Using the convolution formula \[ f_T(t) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx, \] find the probability density function of \(T\).
Solution
Since \[ X,Y\sim \operatorname {Unif}(0,1), \] we have \[ f_X(x)=f_Y(x) = \begin {cases} 1, & 0<x<1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Also, \[ 0<X<1 \qquad \text {and}\qquad 0<Y<1, \] so \[ 0<T<2. \]
Therefore, \[ f_T(t)=0 \] outside the interval \((0,2)\).
For \(0<t\leq 1\), the convolution formula gives \[ f_T(t) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx. \]
For the integrand to be nonzero, we need \[ 0<x<1 \] and \[ 0<t-x<1. \]
When \(0<t\leq 1\), these conditions reduce to \[ 0<x<t. \]
Therefore, \[ f_T(t) = \int _0^t1\,dx = t. \]
Now suppose \[ 1<t<2. \]
Again, we need \[ 0<x<1 \] and \[ 0<t-x<1. \]
The second inequality gives \[ t-1<x<t. \]
Combining this with \(0<x<1\), we obtain \[ t-1<x<1. \]
Hence, \[ f_T(t) = \int _{t-1}^{1}1\,dx = 2-t. \]
Therefore, \[ f_T(t) = \begin {cases} t, & 0<t\leq 1,\\[1mm] 2-t, & 1<t<2,\\[1mm] 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Problem 71
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent random variables satisfying \[ P(X=1)=P(X=-1)=\frac 12, \] and \[ P(Y=1)=P(Y=-1)=\frac 12. \]
Define \[ Z=XY. \]
Solution
The four possible values of \((X,Y)\) are \[ (1,1),\quad (1,-1),\quad (-1,1),\quad (-1,-1), \] each with probability \(1/4\).
Since \[ Z=XY, \] we obtain the table \[ \begin {array}{c|c|c} X & Y & Z\\ \hline 1 & 1 & 1\\ 1 & -1 & -1\\ -1 & 1 & -1\\ -1 & -1 & 1 \end {array} \]
Thus, \[ p_Z(z) = \begin {cases} \dfrac 12, & z=1,-1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
For example, \[ P(X=1,Z=1) = P(X=1,Y=1) = \frac 14. \]
Also, \[ P(X=1)P(Z=1) = \frac 12\cdot \frac 12 = \frac 14. \]
Similarly, \[ P(X=1,Z=-1) = P(X=1,Y=-1) = \frac 14, \] and \[ P(X=1)P(Z=-1) = \frac 14. \]
The same calculation holds for \(X=-1\). Therefore, \[ P(X=x,Z=z) = P(X=x)P(Z=z) \] for every \[ x,z\in \{-1,1\}. \]
Hence, \(X\) and \(Z\) are independent.
Explicitly, \[ P(Y=y,Z=z) = P(Y=y)P(Z=z) \] for all \[ y,z\in \{-1,1\}. \]
Therefore, \(X,Y,Z\) are pairwise independent.
Thus, the three random variables satisfy a deterministic relationship.
For example, \[ P(X=1,Y=1,Z=-1)=0. \]
But \[ P(X=1)P(Y=1)P(Z=-1) = \frac 12\cdot \frac 12\cdot \frac 12 = \frac 18. \]
Therefore, \[ P(X=1,Y=1,Z=-1) \neq P(X=1)P(Y=1)P(Z=-1). \]
Hence, \(X,Y,Z\) are not mutually independent.
Problem 72
Let \(X\) and \(Y\) have joint probability density function \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} 2, & 0<y<x<1,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]
Solution
The support is the triangular region \[ 0<y<x<1. \]
If \[ x\leq 0 \qquad \text {or}\qquad y\leq 0, \] then \[ F_{X,Y}(x,y)=0. \]
Now consider \[ 0<x<1, \qquad 0<y<x. \]
For a fixed value \(v\) of \(Y\), the support requires \[ v<u<x, \] where \(u\) denotes the value of \(X\).
Thus, \[ \begin {aligned} F_{X,Y}(x,y) &= \int _0^y \int _v^x 2\,du\,dv\\ &= 2\int _0^y(x-v)\,dv\\ &= 2xy-y^2. \end {aligned} \]
Next consider \[ 0<x<1, \qquad y\geq x. \]
In this case, the condition \(Y\leq y\) does not further restrict the support below \(X=x\). Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} F_{X,Y}(x,y) &= P(X\leq x)\\ &= \int _0^x \int _0^u 2\,dv\,du\\ &= \int _0^x2u\,du\\ &= x^2. \end {aligned} \]
Now suppose \[ x\geq 1. \]
If \[ 0<y<1, \] then the condition \(X\leq x\) imposes no restriction, so \[ \begin {aligned} F_{X,Y}(x,y) &= P(Y\leq y)\\ &= \int _0^y \int _v^1 2\,du\,dv\\ &= 2\int _0^y(1-v)\,dv\\ &= 2y-y^2. \end {aligned} \]
Finally, if \[ x\geq 1 \qquad \text {and}\qquad y\geq 1, \] then \[ F_{X,Y}(x,y)=1. \]
Thus, \[ F_{X,Y}(x,y) = \begin {cases} 0, & x\leq 0\text { or }y\leq 0,\\[1mm] 2xy-y^2, & 0<y<x<1,\\[1mm] x^2, & 0<x<1,\ y\geq x,\\[1mm] 2y-y^2, & x\geq 1,\ 0<y<1,\\[1mm] 1, & x\geq 1,\ y\geq 1. \end {cases} \]
Hence, \[ F_X(x) = \begin {cases} 0, & x\leq 0,\\[1mm] x^2, & 0<x<1,\\[1mm] 1, & x\geq 1. \end {cases} \]
Similarly, \[ F_Y(y) = \lim _{x\to \infty } F_{X,Y}(x,y). \]
Thus, \[ F_Y(y) = \begin {cases} 0, & y\leq 0,\\[1mm] 2y-y^2, & 0<y<1,\\[1mm] 1, & y\geq 1. \end {cases} \]
Here, \[ a=\frac 14, \qquad b=\frac 34, \qquad c=\frac 14, \qquad d=\frac 12. \]
First, \[ F_{X,Y}\left (\frac 34,\frac 12\right ) = 2\left (\frac 34\right )\left (\frac 12\right ) - \left (\frac 12\right )^2 = \frac 12. \]
Next, since \[ \frac 12\geq \frac 14, \] we use the \(y\geq x\) case: \[ F_{X,Y}\left (\frac 14,\frac 12\right ) = \left (\frac 14\right )^2 = \frac 1{16}. \]
Also, \[ F_{X,Y}\left (\frac 34,\frac 14\right ) = 2\left (\frac 34\right )\left (\frac 14\right ) - \left (\frac 14\right )^2 = \frac 5{16}. \]
Finally, \[ F_{X,Y}\left (\frac 14,\frac 14\right ) = \left (\frac 14\right )^2 = \frac 1{16}. \]
Therefore, \[ \begin {aligned} &P\left ( \frac 14<X\leq \frac 34,\, \frac 14<Y\leq \frac 12 \right )\\ &= \frac 12 - \frac 1{16} - \frac 5{16} + \frac 1{16}\\ &= \frac 3{16}. \end {aligned} \]
Thus, \[ P\left ( \frac 14<X\leq \frac 34,\, \frac 14<Y\leq \frac 12 \right ) = \frac 3{16}. \]