University of Washington
Department of Mathematics Final Examination Solutions

MATH 394: Probability I

Summer 2026 — Instructor: Arman Jahangiri

Exam date: August 21, 2026

Answering time: 60 minutes

Total: 60 points

Problem 1. 16 points

Let the joint probability density function of random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) be given by \[ f(x,y) = \begin {cases} x^2e^{-x(y+1)}, & x\geq 0,\quad y\geq 0,\\ 0, & \text {elsewhere}. \end {cases} \]

The marginal probability density functions are \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} xe^{-x}, & x\geq 0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}, \end {cases} \] and \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {2}{(1+y)^3}, & y\geq 0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]

(a)
Calculate \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y). \] (4 points)
(b)
Calculate \[ \operatorname {Cov}(3X+1,\,2X-4). \] (3 points)
(c)
Are \(X\) and \(Y\) independent? Justify your answer. (2 points)
(d)
Calculate the moment-generating function of \(X\), namely \[ M_X(t)=E(e^{tX}). \] (3 points)
(e)
Using \(M_X(t)\), calculate \(E(X)\). (2 points)

Solution

(a) Recall that \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y) = E(XY)-E(X)E(Y). \]

First, \begin {align*} E(X) &= \int _0^\infty x f_X(x)\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x}\,dx\\ &=2. \end {align*}

Next, \begin {align*} E(Y) &= \int _0^\infty y\frac {2}{(1+y)^3}\,dy\\ &=1. \end {align*}

To calculate \(E(XY)\), use the joint density: \begin {align*} E(XY) &= \int _0^\infty \int _0^\infty xy\,x^2e^{-x(y+1)}\,dy\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty x^3e^{-x} \left ( \int _0^\infty y e^{-xy}\,dy \right )dx. \end {align*}

For \(x>0\), \[ \int _0^\infty y e^{-xy}\,dy = \frac {1}{x^2}. \]

Therefore, \begin {align*} E(XY) &= \int _0^\infty xe^{-x}\,dx\\ &=1. \end {align*}

Hence \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y) = 1-(2)(1) = -1. \]

(b) Using \[ \operatorname {Cov}(aX+b,cX+d) = ac\,\operatorname {Var}(X), \] we obtain \[ \operatorname {Cov}(3X+1,2X-4) = 6\operatorname {Var}(X). \]

Now \[ E(X)=2, \] and \begin {align*} E(X^2) &= \int _0^\infty x^2 f_X(x)\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty x^3e^{-x}\,dx\\ &=6. \end {align*}

Thus \[ \operatorname {Var}(X) = E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2 = 6-4 = 2. \]

Therefore, \[ \operatorname {Cov}(3X+1,2X-4) = 6(2) = 12. \]

(c) If \(X\) and \(Y\) were independent, then we would have \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y)=f_X(x)f_Y(y) \] on their support.

However, \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y) = xe^{-x}\frac {2}{(1+y)^3}, \] whereas \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y) = x^2e^{-x(y+1)}. \]

These are not equal in general. Therefore, \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.

Alternatively, part (a) already gives \[ \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y)=-1\neq 0. \] Since independence would imply zero covariance, \(X\) and \(Y\) cannot be independent.

(d) By definition, \begin {align*} M_X(t) &= E(e^{tX})\\ &= \int _0^\infty e^{tx}xe^{-x}\,dx\\ &= \int _0^\infty xe^{-(1-t)x}\,dx. \end {align*}

For \(t<1\), \[ \int _0^\infty xe^{-(1-t)x}\,dx = \frac {1}{(1-t)^2}. \]

Therefore, \[ M_X(t) = \frac {1}{(1-t)^2}, \qquad t<1. \]

(e) We know that \[ E(X)=M_X'(0). \]

Since \[ M_X(t)=(1-t)^{-2}, \] we have \[ M_X'(t)=2(1-t)^{-3}. \]

Therefore, \[ E(X) = M_X'(0) = 2. \]

Final Answer

\[ \text {(a)}\quad \operatorname {Cov}(X,Y)=-1. \]

\[ \text {(b)}\quad \operatorname {Cov}(3X+1,2X-4)=12. \]

\[ \text {(c)}\quad X\text { and }Y\text { are not independent.} \]

\[ \text {(d)}\quad M_X(t)=\frac {1}{(1-t)^2}, \qquad t<1. \]

\[ \text {(e)}\quad E(X)=2. \]

Problem 2. 8 points

Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be two positive independent continuous random variables with probability density functions \(f_1(x)\) and \(f_2(y)\), respectively.

Find the probability density function of \[ U=\frac {X}{Y}. \]

Hint: Let \(V=X\). Find the joint probability density function of \(U\) and \(V\) (Jacobian method), and then calculate the marginal probability density function of \(U\).

Solution

Define \[ U=\frac {X}{Y}, \qquad V=X. \]

We first find the inverse transformation.

Since \[ v=x \] and \[ u=\frac {x}{y}, \] we obtain \[ x=v, \qquad y=\frac {v}{u}. \]

Because \(X>0\) and \(Y>0\), the support of \((U,V)\) is \[ u>0,\qquad v>0. \]

The Jacobian of the inverse transformation is \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {vmatrix} \dfrac {\partial x}{\partial u} & \dfrac {\partial x}{\partial v} \\[2mm] \dfrac {\partial y}{\partial u} & \dfrac {\partial y}{\partial v} \end {vmatrix}. \]

Since \[ x=v, \qquad y=\frac vu, \] we have \[ \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} = \begin {vmatrix} 0 & 1\\[2mm] -\dfrac {v}{u^2} & \dfrac 1u \end {vmatrix} = \frac {v}{u^2}. \]

Thus \[ \left | \frac {\partial (x,y)}{\partial (u,v)} \right | = \frac {v}{u^2}. \]

Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ f_{X,Y}(x,y)=f_1(x)f_2(y). \]

Therefore, \[ f_{U,V}(u,v) = f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right ) \frac {v}{u^2}, \qquad u,v>0. \]

Finally, integrate out \(V\): \[ f_U(u) = \int _0^\infty f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right ) \frac {v}{u^2}\,dv, \qquad u>0. \]

For \(u\leq 0\), \[ f_U(u)=0. \]

Final Answer

\[ f_U(u) = \begin {cases} \displaystyle \frac {1}{u^2} \int _0^\infty v f_1(v) f_2\left (\frac vu\right )\,dv, & u>0,\\[4mm] 0, & u\leq 0. \end {cases} \]

Problem 3. 7 points

Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be i.i.d. positive random variables.

For each part below, fill in the appropriate equality or inequality symbol.

Write \(=\) if the two sides are always equal, \(\leq \) if the left-hand side is less than or equal to the right-hand side but not necessarily equal, and similarly for \(\geq \). If no relation holds in general, write \(?\).

Justify each answer.

(a)
\[ E(\log X) \quad \underline {\hspace {1.2cm}} \quad \log (E(X)). \] (3 points)
(b)
\[ P(X\leq Y) \quad \underline {\hspace {1.2cm}} \quad P(X\geq Y). \] (2 points)
(c)
\[ E(XY) \quad \underline {\hspace {1.2cm}} \quad \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \] (2 points)

Solution

(a) The function \[ g(x)=\log x \] is concave on \((0,\infty )\).

By Jensen’s inequality for a concave function, \[ E[g(X)]\leq g(E[X]). \]

Therefore, \[ E(\log X)\leq \log (E(X)). \]

(b) Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are i.i.d., the joint distribution of \((X,Y)\) is symmetric under interchange of \(X\) and \(Y\).

Therefore, \[ P(X<Y)=P(Y<X). \]

Also, \[ P(X\leq Y) = P(X<Y)+P(X=Y) \] and \[ P(X\geq Y) = P(X>Y)+P(X=Y). \]

Since \[ P(X<Y)=P(X>Y), \] it follows that \[ P(X\leq Y)=P(X\geq Y). \]

(c) By the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality, \[ |E(XY)| \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \]

Since \(X\) and \(Y\) are positive, \[ E(XY)\geq 0. \]

Hence \[ E(XY) \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \]

In fact, because \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, \[ E(XY)=E(X)E(Y), \] but Cauchy–Schwarz gives the requested comparison directly.

Final Answer

\[ \text {(a)}\quad E(\log X) \leq \log (E(X)). \]

\[ \text {(b)}\quad P(X\leq Y) = P(X\geq Y). \]

\[ \text {(c)}\quad E(XY) \leq \sqrt {E(X^2)E(Y^2)}. \]

Problem 4. 7 points

Suppose \[ X_1,\ldots ,X_n \] are independent Bernoulli random variables with unknown success probability \(p\), and define \[ \widehat p = \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^n X_i. \]

Let \[ \varepsilon >0 \qquad \text {and}\qquad 0<\alpha <1. \]

Using Chebyshev’s inequality, derive a condition on the sample size \(n\) that guarantees \[ P\left (|\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon \right ) \geq 1-\alpha \] for every \[ 0<p<1. \]

Solution

Since \[ X_i\sim \operatorname {Bernoulli}(p), \] we have \[ E(X_i)=p, \qquad \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=p(1-p). \]

Therefore, \[ E(\widehat p) = E\left ( \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^nX_i \right ) = p. \]

Since the \(X_i\)’s are independent, \begin {align*} \operatorname {Var}(\widehat p) &= \operatorname {Var} \left ( \frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^nX_i \right )\\ &= \frac 1{n^2} \sum _{i=1}^n \operatorname {Var}(X_i)\\ &= \frac {p(1-p)}{n}. \end {align*}

Chebyshev’s inequality gives \[ P\left ( |\widehat p-p|\geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {\operatorname {Var}(\widehat p)} {\varepsilon ^2} = \frac {p(1-p)}{n\varepsilon ^2}. \]

We want a bound that holds for every \(0<p<1\).

Since \[ p(1-p)\leq \frac 14, \] we obtain \[ P\left ( |\widehat p-p|\geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {1}{4n\varepsilon ^2}. \]

Therefore, \[ P\left ( |\widehat p-p|<\varepsilon \right ) \geq 1-\frac {1}{4n\varepsilon ^2}. \]

To guarantee that this is at least \(1-\alpha \), it is sufficient that \[ \frac {1}{4n\varepsilon ^2} \leq \alpha . \]

Solving for \(n\), \[ n \geq \frac {1}{4\alpha \varepsilon ^2}. \]

Since \(n\) must be an integer, one may take \[ n \geq \left \lceil \frac {1}{4\alpha \varepsilon ^2} \right \rceil . \]

Final Answer

A sufficient condition is \[ n \geq \frac {1}{4\alpha \varepsilon ^2}. \]

Equivalently, for integer sample size, \[ n \geq \left \lceil \frac {1}{4\alpha \varepsilon ^2} \right \rceil . \]

Problem 5. 8 points

Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent exponential random variables with common parameter \(\lambda >0\): \[ X,Y\overset {\mathrm {i.i.d.}}{\sim }\operatorname {Exp}(\lambda ), \] with probability density function \[ f(w)= \begin {cases} \lambda e^{-\lambda w}, & w>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]

Define \[ T=X+Y. \]

Using the convolution formula \[ f_T(t) = \int _{-\infty }^{\infty } f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx, \] find the probability density function of \(T\), including its support.

Solution

Since \[ T=X+Y \] and \(X,Y>0\), we must have \[ T>0. \]

Thus, for \(t\leq 0\), \[ f_T(t)=0. \]

Now suppose \(t>0\).

For the integrand \[ f_X(x)f_Y(t-x) \] to be nonzero, we need \[ x>0 \] and \[ t-x>0. \]

Therefore, \[ 0<x<t. \]

Using convolution, \begin {align*} f_T(t) &= \int _0^t f_X(x)f_Y(t-x)\,dx\\ &= \int _0^t \lambda e^{-\lambda x} \lambda e^{-\lambda (t-x)} \,dx\\ &= \lambda ^2e^{-\lambda t} \int _0^t dx\\ &= \lambda ^2t e^{-\lambda t}. \end {align*}

Hence \[ f_T(t) = \begin {cases} \lambda ^2t e^{-\lambda t}, & t>0,\\ 0, & t\leq 0. \end {cases} \]

Thus \(T\) does not have an exponential distribution. It has a Gamma distribution with shape parameter \(2\) and rate parameter \(\lambda \).

Final Answer

\[ f_T(t) = \begin {cases} \lambda ^2t e^{-\lambda t}, & t>0,\\ 0, & t\leq 0. \end {cases} \]

Equivalently, \[ T\sim \operatorname {Gamma}(2,\lambda ) \] under the shape-rate parameterization.

Problem 6. 8 points

Let \(X,Y,Z\) be jointly continuous with joint probability density function \[ f_{X,Y,Z}(x,y,z) = \begin {cases} x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}, & x,y,z>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]

The marginal probability density functions are \[ f_X(x) = \begin {cases} e^{-x}, & x>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}, \end {cases} \] and \[ f_Y(y) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {1}{(1+y)^2}, & y>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}, \end {cases} \qquad f_Z(z) = \begin {cases} \dfrac {1}{(1+z)^2}, & z>0,\\ 0, & \text {otherwise}. \end {cases} \]

(a)
Are \(X,Y,Z\) pairwise independent? Justify your answer. (5 points)
(b)
Are \(X,Y,Z\) mutually independent? Justify your answer. (3 points)

Solution

(a) To determine pairwise independence, we examine the joint density of each pair.

First, consider \(X\) and \(Y\). Integrating out \(Z\), \begin {align*} f_{X,Y}(x,y) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}\,dz\\ &= x^2e^{-x(1+y)} \int _0^\infty e^{-xz}\,dz\\ &= x^2e^{-x(1+y)} \frac 1x\\ &= xe^{-x(1+y)}, \qquad x,y>0. \end {align*}

On the other hand, \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y) = e^{-x}\frac {1}{(1+y)^2}. \]

These are not equal in general: \[ xe^{-x(1+y)} \neq \frac {e^{-x}}{(1+y)^2}. \]

Therefore, \(X\) and \(Y\) are not independent.

Consequently, \(X,Y,Z\) cannot be pairwise independent.

For completeness, the same phenomenon occurs for the other pairs.

By symmetry, \[ f_{X,Z}(x,z) = xe^{-x(1+z)}, \] which is not equal to \[ f_X(x)f_Z(z) = \frac {e^{-x}}{(1+z)^2}. \]

For \(Y\) and \(Z\), \begin {align*} f_{Y,Z}(y,z) &= \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}\,dx. \end {align*}

Using \[ \int _0^\infty x^2e^{-ax}\,dx = \frac {2}{a^3}, \qquad a>0, \] we obtain \[ f_{Y,Z}(y,z) = \frac {2}{(1+y+z)^3}. \]

However, \[ f_Y(y)f_Z(z) = \frac {1}{(1+y)^2(1+z)^2}, \] which is again different in general.

Hence none of the three pairs is independent.

(b) Mutual independence would require \[ f_{X,Y,Z}(x,y,z) = f_X(x)f_Y(y)f_Z(z) \] for all points in the support.

The product of the marginals is \[ f_X(x)f_Y(y)f_Z(z) = \frac {e^{-x}} {(1+y)^2(1+z)^2}. \]

But the joint density is \[ f_{X,Y,Z}(x,y,z) = x^2e^{-x(1+y+z)}. \]

These expressions are not equal in general.

Therefore, \(X,Y,Z\) are not mutually independent.

Also, since mutual independence implies pairwise independence and part (a) shows that they are not pairwise independent, mutual independence is impossible.

Final Answer

\[ \text {(a)}\quad X,Y,Z\text { are not pairwise independent.} \]

In fact, none of the three pairs is independent.

\[ \text {(b)}\quad X,Y,Z\text { are not mutually independent.} \]

Problem 7. 6 points

For each part below, select the correct statement of the indicated theorem. Only one choice is correct in each part.

(a)
Weak Law of Large Numbers (WLLN).

Let \(X_1,X_2,\ldots \) be i.i.d. random variables with finite mean \[ E(X_i)=\mu \] and finite variance \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=\sigma ^2. \] Let \[ \overline X_n=\frac 1n\sum _{i=1}^n X_i. \]

Which of the following is the conclusion of the Weak Law of Large Numbers? (2 points)

(A)
For every \(\varepsilon >0\), \[ P\left ( |\overline X_n-\mu |>\varepsilon \right )=0 \qquad \text {for every }n. \]
(B)
For every \(\varepsilon >0\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( |\overline X_n-\mu |>\varepsilon \right ) =0. \]
(C)
\[ P\left ( \lim _{n\to \infty }\overline X_n=\mu \right )=1. \]
(D)
For every \(z\in \mathbb R\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( \frac {\overline X_n-\mu }{\sigma /\sqrt n} \leq z \right ) = \Phi (z). \]
(b)
Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN).

Let \(X_1,X_2,\ldots \) be i.i.d. random variables satisfying the same assumptions as in the Weak Law of Large Numbers, with \[ E(X_i)=\mu \] and finite variance \[ \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=\sigma ^2. \]

Which of the following is the conclusion of the Strong Law of Large Numbers? (2 points)

(A)
\[ P\left ( \lim _{n\to \infty }\overline X_n=\mu \right )=1. \]
(B)
For every \(\varepsilon >0\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( |\overline X_n-\mu |>\varepsilon \right ) =0. \]
(C)
\[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P(\overline X_n=\mu ) =1. \]
(D)
\[ \frac {\overline X_n-\mu }{\sigma /\sqrt n} \xrightarrow []{d} N(0,1). \]
(c)
Central Limit Theorem (CLT).

Let \(X_1,X_2,\ldots \) be i.i.d. random variables with \[ E(X_i)=\mu , \qquad \operatorname {Var}(X_i)=\sigma ^2<\infty . \]

Which of the following is the conclusion of the Central Limit Theorem? (2 points)

(A)
\[ \overline X_n \xrightarrow []{P} N(\mu ,\sigma ^2). \]
(B)
\[ P\left ( \lim _{n\to \infty }\overline X_n=\mu \right )=1. \]
(C)
For every \(z\in \mathbb R\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( \frac {\overline X_n-\mu }{\sigma /\sqrt n} \leq z \right ) = \Phi (z). \]
(D)
For every \(\varepsilon >0\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( |\overline X_n-\mu |>\varepsilon \right ) =0. \]

Solution

(a) Weak Law of Large Numbers.

The WLLN states that the sample mean converges to the population mean \(\mu \) in probability. That is, for every \(\varepsilon >0\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( |\overline X_n-\mu |>\varepsilon \right ) = 0. \]

Therefore, the correct answer is

\[ \textbf {B}. \]

(b) Strong Law of Large Numbers.

The SLLN states that \[ \overline X_n\longrightarrow \mu \] almost surely. Equivalently, \[ P\left ( \lim _{n\to \infty }\overline X_n=\mu \right ) = 1. \]

Therefore, the correct answer is

\[ \textbf {A}. \]

(c) Central Limit Theorem.

The CLT states that the standardized sample mean converges in distribution to a standard normal random variable: \[ \frac {\overline X_n-\mu }{\sigma /\sqrt n} \xrightarrow []{d} N(0,1). \]

Equivalently, for every \(z\in \mathbb R\), \[ \lim _{n\to \infty } P\left ( \frac {\overline X_n-\mu }{\sigma /\sqrt n} \leq z \right ) = \Phi (z). \]

Therefore, the correct answer is

\[ \textbf {C}. \]

Final Answer

\[ \boxed {\text {(a) B}} \qquad \boxed {\text {(b) A}} \qquad \boxed {\text {(c) C}} \]